Iran's Deadly Ambition. Ilan Berman

       © 2015, 2016 by Ilan Berman

      All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of Encounter Books, 900 Broadway, Suite 601, New York, New York, 10003.

      First American edition published in 2015 by Encounter Books, an activity of Encounter for Culture and Education, Inc., a nonprofit, tax exempt corporation. Encounter Books website address: www.encounterbooks.com

      The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1992 (R 1997) (Permanence of Paper).

      First paperback edition published in 2016.

      THE LIBRARY OF CONGRESS HAS CATALOGUED THE HARDCOVER EDITION AS FOLLOWS:

      Berman, Ilan.

      Iran’s deadly ambition: the Islamic republic’s quest for global power / Ilan Berman.

      pages cm

      Includes bibliographical references and index.

      ISBN 978-1-59403-898-3 (ebook)

      1. Iran—Foreign relations—21st century. 2. World politics—21st century. I. Title.

      DS318.83.B47 2015

      327.55—dc23

      2015010955

      PRODUCED BY WILSTED & TAYLOR PUBLISHING SERVICES

      Copy editor Lynn Meinhardt

      Designer and compositor Nancy Koerner

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       For Hillary,

       with all my love

      Contents

Preface

Introduction

CHAPTER I Iran’s Manifest Destiny

CHAPTER II Subverting the Arab Spring

CHAPTER III Iran’s Own “War on Terror”

      CHAPTER IV Iran’s European Enablers

      CHAPTER V Eurasia Calling

      CHAPTER VI Iran’s Asian Lifeline

      CHAPTER VII A Foothold in Latin America

      CHAPTER VIII Inroads in Africa

      CHAPTER IX A New Domain for Conflict

       Conclusion

       Notes

       Index

       Preface

      In Washington, they say, policy debates never truly go away. Instead, they come back, time and time again, albeit occasionally in different forms.

      That has certainly been the case with Iran. In 2004, when I wrote my first book on the subject, Tehran Rising, few government officials—and even fewer ordinary Americans—were familiar with the ideology animating the Islamic Republic or the true scope of the problems the Iranian regime poses for our foreign partners and for us.

      A decade later, quite a few more people are. Yet, by and large, America is as divided as ever about how best to address the strategic challenge that Iran represents. In fact, we have in many ways moved further away from a sober assessment of the scale of Iran’s ambitions and its destabilizing potential on the world stage.

      So this book is intended, at least in part, to serve as a corrective of sorts. It is not, by any stretch, a comprehensive review of Iran’s history, ideology, and activities. Those topics have been covered in countless books already and will assuredly be the subjects of many more. Instead, this work is my humble attempt to outline the true scope of a problem that I am convinced the U.S. government will need to deal with in the years ahead.

      That I was able to undertake this project at all is a credit to American Foreign Policy Council President Herman Pirchner, Jr. For nearly fifteen years, he has provided me with an intellectual home, indulged my interests, underwritten my projects, and challenged me to think critically about the state of the world and America’s place in it. Through it all, he has been a tireless advocate, a fierce critic, and a true friend.

      In putting together this book, I was extremely fortunate to be able to rely on the insights of Michael Doran, Jonathan Schanzer, Joel Rayburn, Matt Levitt, Joseph Humire, Claudia Rosett, Joshua Eisenman, Darin Dutcher, and Larry Haas. They took time out of their busy schedules to provide me with valuable criticism, further refine my thinking, and sharpen my prose. For that, they already have my deepest thanks. But, to the extent that this book helps contribute to the national security debate, they also deserve at least part of the credit. Needless to say, any mistakes that might be contained herein are entirely my own.

      As always, I am grateful to Annie Swingen, Jeff Smith, and Rich Harrison, my colleagues at the American Foreign Policy Council, for their support and friendship and for making our work truly a team effort. Thanks go as well to our tireless in-house editor, Liz Wood, for working her magic on this book, the way she has so many times before. Our pool of talented interns, including Cameron Harris, Collin McClure, Jason Czerwiec, and James Williams, also deserves recognition for helping with the research on various aspects of this book, as well as for pitching in on sundry other projects and initiatives.

      Most of all, I owe an enormous debt to my family. As any author will tell you, book writing is, by its nature, a lonely and selfish undertaking. It requires the freedom to take long absences from the outside world and depends on the patience of others. My wife, Hillary, and my children, Mark and Lauren, provided me with all that during the months and months that I was preoccupied with this project. But they also gave—and continue to give—me much more: their love, their support, and a reason to keep fighting the good fight.

      ILAN BERMAN

       Washington, D.C.

       January 2015