Provoke. Geoff Tuff
what happened to the market for bidets in the United States? Did it continue to surge over the “if-to-when” phase change, or did it fail to create enough momentum? The latter. Bidets had some interesting short-term spikes in sales, but the spike did not turn into a long-lasting trend toward installing bidets in U.S. homes. Our hypothesis is that, while those who have tried bidets in the past may well be passionate about their superior cleaning experience, an insufficient number of Americans have seen a bidet, let alone tried one. The TP shortage didn't last long enough to get into true required behavior adaptation; it was only a concern about a potential future shortage. Therefore, people responded by hunting down every spare toilet paper roll they could find. The brief spike in bidet buying is more likely than not the result of people who had previously been on the fence now taking the “plunge” and using this push to get off the sidelines.
We similarly saw a spike in the trial of wet toilet paper usage, a market that has been unable to meaningfully grow beyond the niche group who swear by its use. In Steve's household, wet toilet paper was a short-term substitute. The Goldbach household was more than happy to see the Dude Wipes run out and the Charmin return.
While some may say hindsight is 20/20, we believe that understanding patterns of how humans behave and industries evolve is critical to forming hypotheses that should drive organizations to DO SOMETHING! earlier than they would otherwise. The trouble is that because of many “fatal flaws,” individuals and organizations fail to get to the starting line of forming these hypotheses about the future. In Chapter 3, we'll examine some of these human and organizational traits that create a narrowing of organizational peripheral vision leading to systematic blindness to emerging trends.
NOTES
1 1. Ray Rivera, “Summerville Police Department Hands Out Roll of Toilet Paper Instead of Tickets,” Live 5, WCSC, March 19, 2020, https://www.live5news.com/2020/03/20/summerville-police-department-handing-out-toilet-paper-instead-tickets/.
2 2. On consumer habits, see A. G. Lafley and Roger L. Martin, “Customer Loyalty Is Overrated: A Theory of Cumulative Advantage,” Harvard Business Review, January–February 2017.
3 3. Brittany Frater, “It Took a Pandemic, but the US Is Finally Discovering the Bidet's Brilliance,” The Guardian, April 14, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/14/us-bidet-toilet-paper-sales-coronavirus; Maria Teresa Hart, “The Bidet's Revival,” The Atlantic, March 18, 2018, https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/03/the-bidets-revival/555770/; Lisa Boone, “Bidet Sales Spike as Consumers Panic Buy Toilet Paper,” LA Times, March 16, 2020, https://www.latimes.com/lifestyle/story/2020-03-16/bidet-sales-spike-as-consumers-panic-buy-toilet-paper.
4 4. For more on the “Balanced Breakthrough Model,” see “What are the three things every idea needs to be successful?” at https://www.ideatovalue.com/inno/nickskillicorn/2019/01/what-are-the-three-things-every-idea-needs-to-be-successful-the-balanced-breakthrough-model/ .
5 5. “Learn the Knowledge of London,” Transport for London, https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/taxis-and-private-hire/licensing/learn-the-knowledge-of-london.
6 6. On e-readers, see Ethan Bronner, “Textbooks Shifting from Printed Page to Screen,” New York Times, December 1, 1998, https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/library/tech/98/12/biztech/articles/01school-etex.html; Anonymous, “E-Book Timeline,” The Guardian, January 3, 2002, https://www.theguardian.com/books/2002/jan/03/ebooks.technology; “Ebooks,” Statista, https://www.statista.com/outlook/213/102/ebooks/europe; Andrew Perrin, “One-in-Five Americans Now Listen to Audiobooks,” September 25, 2019, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/09/25/one-in-five-americans-now-listen-to-audiobooks/.
7 7. Malcolm Gladwell, The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference (New York: Little, Brown, 2000).
8 8. Patricia Cooper, “TRAI Consultation Paper on Roadmap to Promote Broadband Connectivity and Enhanced Broadband Speed,” September 21, 2020, https://trai.gov.in/sites/default/files/SpaceX_10112020.pdf .
CHAPTER 3 Personal Patterns
Some of the stories that we use to bring concepts to life are fun to write: they're evocative, pleasant to remember, and the better ones are strangely apt. Others feel a bit cringe-worthy … because they are so archetypical as to sound ripped from the reels of a corporate training video. Here's the thing, though: not only is this story real, but versions of this story happen all the time to the two of us. We've sat through meetings countless times – and we're sure you have, too – where it's going well until someone makes a comment from which a pile-on ensues.
With that, let's play the training video …
“I thought we were finally going to move! But in the end, we acted like ourselves again. Can I ask a favor? Can we chat for a minute tomorrow, early your time?”
Geoff looked down at his phone at the text from an old client in the United Kingdom. He had worked with Sammy for a long time at his prior company, but they hadn't spoken for a while as Sammy adjusted to his new company and role. Geoff was curious to hear what was going on when the phone rang the following morning.
After pleasantries, Sammy jumped into what he wanted to share. “So, we have been working on this new product launch for the last several months. I'm really excited, and so is the vast majority of the management team when we talk about things in private. But get them into a meeting, and all of a sudden the enthusiasm at the water cooler turns into silence in the meeting.”
Geoff asked Sammy to share an example of a recent meeting. “We had come into this session with some new thinking to share. We showed that there is a group of customers that should be highly likely to adopt a new offer we've been toying around with. We've learned a lot about the needs of this group and feel like they will be very willing to pay for this “concierge” level of service. I've been trying to get the team to let us launch a prototype at a few stores in some key markets just to try it out. But every meeting is kind of like Groundhog Day.”
“Say more,” said Geoff.
Sammy continued,