World in Danger. Wolfgang Ischinger

      PREFACE

      As I am finishing up the final editing of this book in spring 2020, the world is confronted with the greatest threat to international security since World War II. The coronavirus pandemic threatens the lives and livelihood of millions—if not billions—of people across the globe. It builds on top of—and often exacerbates—the multiple security crises that endangered the international community well before the virus broke out. And it occurs before the background of a world that was already out of joint and characterized by growing uncertainty.

      In fact, events are happening in the world that seemed impossible just a short time ago: The president of the United States, once the uncontested leader of the “free world,” is not only largely absent from the global response to the coronavirus crisis. He is also snubbing his closest allies, first by withdrawing from the Paris climate accord and the Iran deal signed after years of arduous diplomatic negotiations with the Americans, Europeans, Russians, and Chinese; and then, just a short time later, by honoring the North Korean dictator with a summit meeting at which the U.S. president made far-reaching concessions. And while he appears to get along wonderfully with Kim Jong-un, Donald Trump has recently been at odds with the United States’s closest partners and allies on trade issues. Thoughts in Washington have turned to more punitive tariffs. These could affect, for instance, German automobile manufacturers who export to the United States. Will our country become a target for Trump? What does this mean for the future of the transatlantic partnership and for the future of the West?

      In Europe there are worries about the stability of the eurozone and the general development of the European Union—worries that are further amplified by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Many European countries have seen successful campaigns by parties that are critical of European integration. At home and abroad, populist voices are calling for more nation-state and less Europe. In some member states, fundamental European values and principles are being called into question. How is Europe supposed to function in the long term and become capable of formulating global policy?

      In Moscow, Vladimir Putin continues his fourth term as Russian president. Under his leadership, the prospect of détente with the West seems dubious at best. Just recently he introduced new strategic nuclear weapons that the Russian military intends to deploy. At the same time, there is so far no progress on arms control—indeed, a new arms race is well under way. Since the Russian intervention in Georgia, the annexation of Crimea, and Russian interference in Eastern Ukraine, Germany’s allies in Central and Eastern Europe have become even more worried. Several hundred German soldiers have been stationed in Lithuania in order to emphasize our solidarity. But for some, this is not enough. The Polish ministry of defense, for one, announced that it would prefer to have an entire American division on its own territory. What do such developments mean for European security? Can we guarantee our own security without entering into a new, spiraling arms race, which could bring insecurity for all?

      Indeed, we are once again facing fundamental foreign policy questions: How do we deal with Russia, a neighboring power that continues to violate the fundamental principles of the European security architecture and attempts to weaken liberal democracies? What does it mean for European security when Donald Trump openly questions core principles of U.S. foreign policy since 1945? And what conclusions can we draw from this? What are the prospects for the future of the European Union in the age of Brexit and populist movements in Europe? What do we mean when we say that Germany must take on more responsibility?

      In Germany, debate on these fundamental foreign policy questions of our time is avoided rather than sought: Sure, addressing these issues can be awkward and exhausting. But considering the deteriorating state of global security, I do not believe that we can afford to remain passive. On the contrary, in the years to come, our country will be facing even greater foreign policy challenges, and we are not yet adequately prepared. And because there are no simple answers, it is all the more important that we discuss these challenges and how we can deal with them.

      The German government has realized this, too, by the way, declaring in the coalition