The COVID-19 Epidemic in China. Lawrence J Lau
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Lau, Lawrence J., 1944- author. | Xiong, Yanyan, author.
Title: The COVID-19 epidemic in China / Lawrence Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Yanyan Xiong, Zhejiang University, China.
Description: New Jersey : World Scientific, [2021] | Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2020030584 | ISBN 9789811222504 (hardcover) | ISBN 9789811224195 (paperback) | ISBN 9789811222511 (ebook) | ISBN 9789811222528 (ebook other)
Subjects: LCSH: COVID-19 (Disease)--China. | COVID-19 (Disease)--Economic aspects--China.
Classification: LCC RA644.C67 L38 2021 | DDC 362.1962/41400951--dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020030584
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
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Dedication
To Ayesha, my muse, my love and my life, LJL To my beloved grandparents who enlightened me with endless love, YX
Preface
We should begin by saying explicitly that we are economists and not healthcare professionals. We do not even have much experience or training in health economics. This book is based entirely on a statistical analysis of the empirical data on newly confirmed COVID-19 cases within specific areas such as Wuhan, Hubei, and the Mainland of China. Our interest in the COVID-19 epidemic in China was stimulated by the experience of one of us, LJL, who was able to predict the end of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in China and Hong Kong in March 2003, when he was a Professor of Economics at Stanford University. On the basis of fragmentary statistical data, he predicted that the epidemic would end in June 2003, and it did. In mid-February 2020, we tried to see whether we could replicate the successful prediction experience with the COVID-19 epidemic and predicted that it would be over by the end of March 2020.
It turned out that the COVID-19 epidemic was essentially over on the Mainland of China outside of Hubei Province by the middle of March 2020, and on the entire Mainland, including Hubei and Wuhan, at the end of March, in accordance with our prediction in mid-February and published in our article, “Don’t Panic, Be Cautious, and Together We Can Stop the Coronavirus Epidemic”, Asia Pacific Biotech News, Special Issue 1, March 2020, pp. 90–107. The lockdown in Wuhan has also been ended. Mainland China has now largely returned to normal.
The objective of this book is to summarise the development of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from its very beginning in December 2019 to its being effectively controlled in April 2020. The first confirmed case of COVID-19 was discovered in Wuhan, the capital of Hubei Province , from which it spread to the rest of Hubei and the Mainland. Our analysis begins with adjustments and, if necessary, corrections of the official cumulative data on daily newly confirmed cases and new deaths, removing any obvious inconsistencies and smoothing the surges not attributable directly to the COVID-19 virus itself, such as delays in reporting and change in definition. Our data ended with midnight (2400) of 31 May 2020. We discuss the measures undertaken by the Chinese Government to control the epidemic. We examine the extent of the infection, the case mortality, and the costs to the economy in Wuhan, outside of Wuhan, and in the rest of the Mainland. There is also an international comparison of the Chinese experience with those of other countries.
We wish to express our deep gratitude to Professor YANG Chen Ning and Dr. K. K. PHUA for encouraging us to write this book. We are most grateful to Professor Dean T. JAMISON, Professor Dale W. JORGENSON, Mrs. Ayesha Macpherson LAU and Dr. Kin Bing WU for their helpful comments and suggestions on earlier drafts. Finally, Ms. Joy QUEK and her colleagues at the World Scientific Publishing Company deserve our special thanks for their advice and assistance. Responsibility for any errors remains with the authors.
Lawrence J. LAU, Hong Kong, China
and
Yanyan XIONG, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
31 May 2020
Contents
Chapter 2A Chronology of the COVID-19 Epidemic on the Mainland
Chapter 3An Early Attempt at Prediction