Economic crisis: Cosmos and people. Николай Игнатьевич Конюхов
and in unison that great movement of exchange began to change the focus of its trends. But any analyst must take into consideration the influence of gravitational forces, and the influence of the electromagnetic activity of the Sun. These values are not linked by a linear dependence. But they resonate with each other cyclically over 144 years. These are cyclical resonances. These factors were unfavorable in 1929 for market growth. They made other people qualitatively different.
Could the trend in the stock market change, if the FRS began to pump money into the economy in September 1929? Could that pumping alter the greatest hormonal change, which occurs with the powerful gravitational resonances in space? Perhaps it was possible, but only for a short time, when psychotherapy would cancel cyclic order given by Cosmos. Anyway, in the twentieth century (and other period for analysis no one), only the Second World War interrupted the economic cycles, but not so hard and not for a long period.
1.4. Crisis 2009
Famous economist Andrei Illarionov called the date of May 19, 2008 the beginning of the Russian crisis "What is crisis? ". Article in "The New Times", № 40[86] as of October 6, 2008. Actually that was the date when the Russian stock indexes stopped growing and began their downfall. The date is not random. That day the Earth was aligned not just between Jupiter and Saturn, but also between the Sun and the Moon. It was a kind of "gravitational stretching", which led to a serious reduction of its own gravity. This is an important day for the development of the world's stock markets.
What you should we note at first? When the Earth is between Jupiter and Saturn, the stock markets often fall. But it happened so that from March to June 2008 and from March to August 2009 the Earth was almost continuously between these planets. In addition it happened in March, September and December 2010 and also in March and November 2011. In August and December 2008, in January 2010 the planets of the solar system set for "bowl."
But the FRS was not napping; it turned to be the greatest specialist in the history being a psychiatrist and a hypnotist. Psychiatrist and hypnotizers convince with voice, simple arguments, hand movements, eyes … These are known techniques. FRS arguments urged different facts, such as scientific knowledge of the history of financial crises of previous years, monographs and columns of numbers. Instead of hand movements they used movements of funds in such a scale that had not been known in history yet. How could people stand from believing? Especially because they all wanted to believe that everything would be alright. “I’m happy to delude myself”. Even the FRS’s meeting on the 16th of March, the first time in 30 years on Sunday, had a psychotherapeutic effect. From March 16 to April 30 the FRS lowered rates provided by banks for funding several times. Just to reassure the markets and the people.
But this did not solve the problem, it just transferred solutions for the future, it was done to prevent the panic, but did not change the people themselves. People were changed with the crisis, and not by hypnotists, and that change led to the structural imbalances accumulated during the gradual growth of irrationality. If people did not change, and every time it is excellently done by crisis, crisis problems would be smeared in time. Psychotherapeutic means that you can remove some of the psychological problems of the patient, but just for a while. The prick for seriously ill person can save their life, but the recovery will take time. Though it all lasted until the output lines of the Earth Jupiter – Saturn, people did not change. So, being not completely recovered, the economy will "sneeze" more and more.
Gravitational effects during crises in 1929 and 2009 are similar, but the state of the Earth's magnetosphere is not stable at all. If in 1929 it aggravated the mental state of the punters, then in 2009 it was favorable to the market participants (average Wolf number in 2009 was 3). This is one of many factors that contributed to special features of the crisis in the future. Pessimism was less than 1929. But the emotional state was not easy. This has affected the dynamics of the stock markets, but still has not repealed the action of the cosmic forces that demonstrates the behavior of the index S&P500.
The top of index S&P500 turned out in September 2007
Perhaps it was not by chance. All the planets are evenly located around the Sun. Then the world began to group together and the index dropped. March 2, 2008 was the significant date, when U.S. indexes fell down to 12-year low. Shares of 30 companies were included in the index of Dow Jones, and 23 were closed on a negative territory. The largest decline of shares belonged to the "Citigroup". Their shares dropped by 39%. The shares of "Bank of America" dropped by 25.75%. Pessimism has covered the U.S. stock markets. It happened when the Earth got to the line of Jupiter and Saturn, and cosmogram took the form of "bowl."
Events on the horizon in 2008 repeated the things that happened in 1929: Jupiter and Saturn were included in opposition. Major changes in the stock market were closely related to the moments when the Earth crossed the line of Jupiter and Saturn. Yet in 2009 there wasn’t the same panic as in 1929, there was no rush for those few days, when it started. Of course, people changed qualitatively and strengthened financial controls, and there was a belief that these controls would not allow the things that happened before. But solar activity was almost zero, and therefore the people in the mass just behaved differently.
FRS acted in this situation as the greatest therapist. It made an unexpected decision to change rates and to buy back shares with shorter maturities that were reconciled in astronomical terms. Authority of Bernanke and his team acted magically. They did along with the actual economic effect which they brought to the market and psychotherapy. This is not the ultimate cause of the crisis but it was less destructive than in 1929. In 1929, such a therapist, according to the Americans themselves, declared himself President Roosevelt. In the third millennium it was the FRS, which was the most trustful source. Although the money was injected into the economy, the real economy was not reached. It's a fact. Therefore it is impossible to ignore the mitigating crisis factor of low solar activity.
Of course, the causes of the crisis are firstly associated with the violation of financial and economic proportions. They are also connected with the acceleration of socio-economic problems in the society.
In 2007, shortly before the beginning of the active phase of the global financial crisis, the volume of the CDS market exceeded $ 60 trillion. The total amount of dollars of derivatives by that time reached approximately 1200 trillion dollars, which is about 20 times more than the world's Gross Domestic Product. Just like in the crisis of 1929, but on a larger scale. According to many experts, it was the collapse in the financial derivatives market has had caused the global financial crisis. Despite the fact that the CDS market share of all derivatives was less than 5%, the role of that tool in the preparation of the 2008 crisis was great.
"This market [CDS] is not regulated, and the holders of the contracts are in absolute ignorance about their protected counterparts. This is the sword of Damocles that is ready to fall as soon as the bankruptcy starts" – wrote George Soros in April 2008. Almost all the banks on Wall Street were both huge assets and liabilities that were regulated by the instruments of CDS, but some banks ("JP Morgan", "AIG", "Lehman Brothers" and others) had such commitments on the order (orders) that exceeded expectations. Everything was on the verge of collapse. But it was a collapse mechanism and it caused wider.
Reasons were connected with the people who had made such imbalances. Their minds refused to understand the truth at the time of slow cumulative increase of those problems. Graphically it looks like icicles falling under the force of the wind that caused the avalanche, which carried away the village. You can talk about the reason of this phenomenon at the level of reasoning that the piece of ice has to blow out the other side. You can talk about the need to avalanche the events. But it is possible to speculate on the scale of climate change that is happening due to the action of cosmic factors. The village was built in the period when the weather was different. It must endure.
Speaking about the reasons of economic crisis, we often argue at the level where it is necessary to send a particular piece of ice or that bag of money. And yet … However, the causes of these events are bigger. Village should move the social structure of society and it must be changed.
If we analyze the reasons for the level of snowflakes and icicles, even the efforts of the best mathematicians with best goals in this world will not give answers to some