Next: A Vision of Our Lives in the Future. Marian Salzman
time to enjoy themselves – most of it is spent studying or learning new skills, such as computer, piano, painting, etc.’
Rapidly expanding economies need skilled and educated people at every level, which has resulted in a severe labour shortage in some of the faster growing economies of the region – and has provided a bonanza for overseas universities, particularly in Australia, Britain, the United States and Canada. But the sharp devaluation of some currencies in the region, and the risk of devaluation hitting other currencies, is making students look closer to home for their education. ‘There will be a major drop in Asian students being sent abroad,’ predicted Han van Dijk, of DY&R Singapore.
Two key education factors will be crucial in determining the shape and success of Asia in the twenty-first century.
The first is how education is imparted. Obedience and respect for authority are deeply instilled in Asian children. Unquestioning rote learning is the norm, and not only for Chinese and Japanese children, who need to memorize hundreds of complex characters just to be able to read. While the top-down, memorizing approach produces socially responsible youngsters who apply themselves diligently to their studies, some people are beginning to worry that it doesn’t foster the personal qualities that Asia needs to make quantum leaps into new economies of the next century.
Already Japanese employers are complaining that university graduates are not up to speed for today’s workplace – the Economist reports that unemployment among graduates and school leavers is two to three times higher than the national average. The government has introduced changes to take the emphasis off exhaustive examination. However, as the Economist reported separately last year, parents may welcome the idea of more liberal, creative education, but they fear changes may damage their children’s chances of employment.
Nevertheless, DY&R Tokyo thinks the country is likely to see greater emphasis on teaching analytical skills, with more attention paid to the personal development of children, while in China, DY&R Shanghai forecasts that education will become ‘more focused on guiding children, bringing out their potential instead of forcing them to memorize everything that they may not even understand. The whole examination system will be changed. Grades are still important, but will not mean everything ten years later. More students will be accepted in universities as the system will be based on potential/talent rather than just examination grades. In addition, there may also be more private universities available.’
The second key factor will be the development of regional centres of educational excellence. High-quality establishments already exist, but they tend to draw students from their local markets. Ambitious students study either locally or in the West, with few considering study in other countries in the region.
Television and Internet chat will help to build relations between young Asians, but there is no substitute for the bonds that are created when people from different countries meet face to face and study together.
Dealing with China
How to deal with China is an issue for all countries in Asia, including China itself. The sheer size of the place, its 1.2 billion population and its diaspora make it impossible to ignore.
Chinese culture and thinking continues to have an impact on all countries in the region. Throughout the centuries, Japan adopted and adapted hugely from China – Japanese writing is based on the Chinese system, even though the languages are totally different. Countries sharing borders with China have felt the need to assert their own identity while developing a modus vivendi for living with such a huge neighbour.
Chinese emigrants have established themselves throughout the region, often achieving great success in business and arousing local envy in the process. So-called ‘Overseas Chinese’ number some 57 million worldwide, with an estimated 53 million of them in Asia Pacific, according to John Naisbitt in Megatrends Asia.
Since the beginning of recorded history, China has been a massive presence in the Asia Pacific region, a country with a manifest belief in its status as ‘the Middle Kingdom’. As the century draws to a close, China has emerged from years of turmoil and hardship, and is looking forward to taking its place among the wealthy superpowers. ‘Deng Xiao Ping created the blueprint of a brilliant future for Chinese people. The next millennium will be a great era for China, a continuation of the new future that has been created,’ says Sharon Lee, of DY&R Shanghai.
China’s pride and ambition have far-reaching implications for the Asian region, and indeed for the Chinese themselves. Being virtually isolated for much of the twentieth century has limited the impact of China’s vast population on the rest of the world, but China has increasingly opened up with the reforms masterminded by Deng.
It used to be said that if all the people in China jumped up and down at the same time, the world would shake. Probably not literally true, but it’s the sort of thought that naturally comes to mind when contemplating a population of 1.2 billion people, most of whom currently don’t travel, don’t own cars, don’t have central heating or air conditioning, don’t have a telephone or life insurance policies, etc. But relatively few of those 1.2 billion potential customers live within geographical or financial reach of consumer heaven; for the moment that privilege is enjoyed far more by the 100 million or so urban dwellers along the coast. During the first decades of its existence, the People’s Republic of China tended to exert its will by military means. The new economically liberal China being guided by President Jiang Zemin is finding a very effective lever in its economic power and the prospect of granting or denying access to China’s vast and potentially lucrative market.
Three of Asia Pacific’s great success stories are Chinese: Singapore, Hong Kong and the island of Taiwan, which the People’s Republic officially regards as a renegade province. As China’s economy grows and opens, the links between them will strengthen, forecasts DY&R Taiwan: ‘Following an improved relationship with China, “The Great China Economic Circles” will gradually take shape.’
The rise of these Chinese economies, and the prosperity of overseas Chinese, is likely to raise some serious questions in non-Chinese countries of the region, particularly with regard to their Chinese immigrant minorities.
In Indonesia, social tension always risks spilling over into anti-Chinese sentiment and even blood-letting. As many as 500,000 people were suspected of Communist sympathies and killed in the coup that brought Suharto to power in 1965, and anti-Chinese sentiment has been evident in Indonesia’s latest troubles.4 In neighbouring Malaysia, the government is mindful of local resentment. It regards the very large Chinese community – about 32 per cent of the population – as economically advantaged and has implemented a pro-Malay affirmative action programme for the last twenty years.5
In future, will a powerful and prosperous China continue to stand by if its overseas cousins are persecuted for being Chinese? Will the huge and pervasive influence of China prompt non-Chinese (e.g., Malays in Malaysia) to assert their own culture and identity more vigorously? Will China be seen as a welcome Asian alternative to Americanization/Westernization? Or will Asians look even more to the West to counterbalance Chinese influence?
[3] Globally Speaking, What’s Next?
Millennium Countdown
Although the new millennium doesn’t strictly speaking begin until 1 January 2001, the year 2000 packs the bigger psychological punch – and people in some parts of the world are getting hit hard. ‘It feels like something big is about to happen,’ writes Danny Hillis in The Millennium Clock. ‘Graphs show us the yearly growth of populations, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, Net addresses, and Mbytes per dollar. They all soar up to form an asymptote just beyond the turn of the century: The Singularity. The end of everything we know. The beginning of something we may never understand.’
Living