Next: A Vision of Our Lives in the Future. Marian Salzman
one of the Indian languages. Many of them would have also learned English but … their familiarity with the language would be more limited. In the big cities a large number belong to the trading classes and are wealthy. Yet, they are looked down upon by the EMTs. Worse, the HMTs often display an inferiority complex. While they are wealthy, they wish to emulate the EMTs in their social behaviour. They tend to wait for the EMTs to adopt a trend before feeling confident about adopting it themselves. HMTs often send their children to elite schools to climb the “emulation” ladder. While this is often successful as far as the child is concerned, it leads to strains within the family as the elders often find it difficult to accept the changed lifestyle of their child.’
Talwar continues: ‘The trendsetters, in the main, emulate whatever is happening in the US. Thus, most trends in the US appear in India after an interval of time – in some cases the time is short; in others, it can be quite long. In areas such as music and clothing, the trends come to Bombay very fast indeed. Yet, in areas to do with sexual mores, trends take a very long time to travel to India.’
New World Capitals
How long will the United States continue to drive trends around the world? Laurence Bernstein of Y&R Toronto doesn’t see this changing anytime soon: ‘Unless the next stage of the development of the European Community is a cultural unification – which is unlikely given traditional language and cultural differences – major trends will probably continue to emanate from the US,’ he says. ‘It takes a monumental, culturally homogeneous society to lead deep-seated trends (ideas and fads can come from anywhere; trends tend to rise up from the essence of the people). Asian developing countries, some of which may have the size and cultural strength needed to be leaders, are currently too focused on American values to explore themselves and develop their own trends in the near to mid-term. Furthermore, until such time as the American stranglehold on the media is replaced, it is hard to see how non-American cultural values will permeate the world.’
Lucinda Sherborne, senior planner at Y&R Auckland, has a different perspective on the situation: ‘The next few years will continue to see key lifestyle trends being filtered out of the UK and the US,’ she says. ‘However, we see these trends and the uptake of these trends speeding up as the world gets smaller and smaller due to increasing effectiveness of technology and the breakdown of global boundaries. The increasing ease of travel, immigration, technology, the Internet and mass media communications will drive these trends, also providing different channels for different ones. I believe the opening up of the world will also allow other countries to generate trends, possibly bypassing traditional trendsetting countries.’
We, too, believe that we’ll see an increase in the influence of trendsetters from other countries in coming years. The Internet will have a big hand in this. The simple fact is that as the world grows ever more interconnected, the influence of any one sector will be felt more readily in other sectors. This global interconnectedness levels the playing field in many respects, because it affords those outside today’s trend centres access to a broader forum.
One of Marian’s colleagues, a Colombian based in Cali, sent Marian a note recently that said, ‘Trends develop more and more in less commercial economies where newness is creative expression versus a reaction to a new product that enters the marketplace with a large budget.’ She pointed to student enclaves and market towns as two likely enclaves for trendsetting next.
We’re already seeing shifts in centres of cultural influence around the globe as baby boomers have regained their position at front and centre (edging out those upstart media darlings, the Xers). They brought with them a renewed emphasis on the biggest cities, the cultural centres. Herewith are our predictions for trend centres next, those cities that will dictate what we wear, watch and listen to in the decade to come.
Destination Next: Gemütlich Places/Global Villages
Just as cosier, genuine people are today more desirable than those who are arrogant or aloof (think Elton John and Chelsea Clinton vs Earl Spencer and Kate Moss), so, too, are cosier, genuine places more desirable. They embody gemütlich, a German term that conveys a combination of all that’s hospitable, homey and sane. Antwerp, a mini-Paris with such designers as Dries Van Noten, is in; Brussels is out. Capetown is in; Johannesburg is out. Of all such places, those that are global villages are trendiest, because they afford the ultimate combination of cosy lifestyle against a backdrop of blended world cultures.
In the West, two gemütlich cities, both global villages, are Amsterdam and San Francisco. Interestingly, these are also the digital capitals of Europe and North America, respectively. San Francisco has long been a melting pot of alternative lifestyles and creative expression; in the past decade, it’s also emerged as a centre of digital creativity. Across the Atlantic, thanks to the Channel Tunnel, IT hot-shots and Web designers can ply their trade in London during the week, then hop on a train to Amsterdam on Friday evening and enjoy a weekend of laid-back vice and virtue. Recreational drug use and daring parties all within easy walking or bicycling distance, no language problems, prices for every pocket, no pretensions – just come as you are and do your own thing.
As the world becomes increasingly wired, the cybersavvy duo of Amsterdam and San Francisco will command an even greater share of the spotlight. Expect gemütlich positioning – cosy marketing – to be the successful positioning for products ranging from consumer electronics to home meal replacements or remote banking.
Destination Next: Gateways
Berlin and Prague, gateways east, are very much global villages next. Though they belong to Xers, these cities bear the mark of older generations, who, as elsewhere in Central and Eastern Europe, preserved traditions in the face of cultural oppression. Prague was the setting of the 1989 Velvet Revolution, the romantic transition that restored democracy to Soviet-controlled Czechoslovakia. It was also home to a hipper, rock music-influenced counterculture that venerated anarchy and produced playwright-as-president Vaclav Havel. The most untrendy aspect of modern Prague is American expatriate culture, with its new-style commercialism. While the first post-revolution invasion brought art-seeking, antimaterialistic young Yanks, Prague now is global in the truest sense, down to its multiplex cinemas. And yet the city sustains a quirky balance; its ancient culture co-exists, even blends, with the commercial culture of perpetual newness, a strong wind that blows across Central Europe.
Back in the heart of Germany and the heart of Europe, Berlin has been there before (think Christopher Isherwood and Cabaret). It has everything – fine buildings, huge public spaces, a romantic/tragic past, more than a hint of lowlife – it is the gateway to the East or West (depending on where you’re coming from), and now the nation has decided to make it the crowning glory of a country reunited at such cost. The former Eastern Bloc countries still tend to see Germany as their natural partner in the West, which makes Berlin a natural for all those eager easterners keen to brush up on their German. And Sony’s decision to build anew film centre in the new city centre is certain to be a magnet for trend leaders. On top of that, Berlin’s ‘love parades’ are an attraction, sometimes pulling in more than a million people. The message: love, peace, happiness. Drugs such as ecstasy are an important part of the scene.
The most threatening cloud on Germany’s horizon is the rise of the new right (neo-Nazis), whose surprisingly strong showing in the last election reflects the unrest of a populace increasingly dissatisfied with the byproducts of their new democratic order: namely, the record levels of unemployment that result when a state-controlled industrial economy enters the free market. The new enemy: everyone not German (all foreigners replace the Jews as the neo-Nazi target).
Destination Next: Music Meccas
Because innovative musicians find a following in places that support creativity, we look to music meccas for signs of what’s next. Chicago’s Wicker Park boasts a music scene that includes Liz Phair, Urge Overkill and Veruca Salt. Clubs and studios in this once-downtrodden neighbourhood thrive alongside such megalabels as Drag City, Touch and Go and Wax Trax. In England, the small port city of Bristol is the birthplace of three