Orchestrating Europe (Text Only). Keith Middlemas
reduce impediments to certain forms of merger. The reason may have been the poor results of cross-frontier mergers within the EEC (only 257 in the period 1961–9) compared with domestic mergers (1861) and those involving third countries (1035). At the same time, the Commission demanded powers to control mergers that threatened to acquire a dominant market position. It did not acquire these powers then, and when it did, in 1973, it was only in the form of rights to prior notification. The intervening years had been marked by complex legal arguments on the way in which the relevant articles were to be applied, arguments that could have been avoided, ‘if there had been any real political will amongst the member states for a merger policy’.
It was obvious that the dismantling of tariffs by both the EEC and EFTA, as well as the EEC’s introduction of a CET, was going to have some impact on the international pattern of trade. Modern customs union theory predicted two effects from the dismantling of tariffs and the introduction of a CET: trade creation, that is a shift from higher-cost producers to other EEC sources whose goods had become cheaper with the dismantling of tariffs; and secondly, trade diversion, that is a shift from lower-cost foreign sources to higher-cost EEC sources that benefited from tariff preferences whilst the external tariff was maintained. Intra-area trade would expand; in the first case because of a more optimal use of resources and in the second at the cost of less optimal sources. Much empirical research has been done to determine the balance of advantage.22
Trade within the blocs rose considerably. That of the EEC increased from $7530m to $49,830m between 1958 and 1971 and within EFTA in the same period from $28oom to $ 11,190m. In both cases, trade between bloc members grew faster than their trade with the rest of the world. EEC exports to EEC countries rose from 32.1% to 49.4% in these years while the percentage share for EFTA exports to EFTA countries rose less dramatically from 17.5% to 24.3%. Before trying to apportion the balance of advantage, one has to consider that increased intra-bloc dependence is not exclusively a function of the manipulation of commercial conditions. In a period when the growth centre of world trade lay in the exchange of increasingly sophisticated manufactured goods, it would not be surprising to see developed economies in close geographical proximity doing particularly well. Equally, performance within groups may be determined by differential growth rates. EFTA, which included the relatively sluggish UK economy, may appear less ‘successful’ than the EEC, with the rapidly-expanding German economy at its core. For example, EC exports to EFTA fell from 21.1% to 16.6% whilst the share of EFTA exports to EEC countries rose from 22.8% to 25.4%, despite the maintainance of tariffs or the deflection of agricultural trade.
Singling out an EEC-effect is not easy and the various attempts that have been made to do so have been much discussed. The so-called ex-post models cover a period when the EEC was in operation, and try to find out what the world would have been like if the EEC had not existed. To estimate trade in such cases, one has to rely on some ceteribus-paribus assumptions, so that the findings are always problematic. Hence Sellekaerts’s warning ‘that all estimates of trade creation and trade diversion by the EEC are so much affected by ceteribus-paribus assumptions, by the choice of benchmark year (or years), by the method to compute income elasticities, by changes in relative shares and by structural changes not attributable to the EEC but which occurred during the pre- and post-integration periods (such as the trade liberalization among industrial countries and autonomous changes in relative prices), that the magnitude of no single estimate should be taken too seriously’. Notwithstanding this destructive comment, it has to be admitted at, despite the different methodologies employed, most studies suggest that trade creation outweighed trade diversion, so that a net gain was achieved. Furthermore, Davenport has stressed the fact that ‘the divergence in estimates is relatively limited, with the majority clustered in a range going from $7.5bn to $11.5bn for trade creation and from $0.5bn to $1bn for trade diversion.’
Very few estimates break this ‘gain’ down into individual national components. Two studies that do this come to broadly similar conclusions. The Benelux countries benefited least, since they already had the lowest tariffs and because the mutual Benelux preferences had to be diluted in the common market (a case of trade erosion). There is a noticeable gap between these countries and the other three. Despite having the next lowest tariffs, Germany benefited the most, reflecting both its export structure and its ability to make inroads into the markets of partner states. France and Italy followed close behind.23
Some authors contend that these calculations underestimate the impact of trading blocs. They stress that increases in market size and the impact of certainties in irreversibly reduced frontier barriers to trade induced a favourable investment climate and economies of scale, at least in sectors engaged in trade. Indeed, in the Italian case, the difference between a hyper-efficient export sector and a more backward domestic sector had led to the economy being analysed in terms of ‘economic dualism’, even before the full impact of the EEC was felt.
Growing commercial interdependence especially among the EEC states prompted concern among their governments over whether or not to tie their currencies closer together. The implications of moving to convertibility in 1958 quickly became apparent because the US balance of payments deficit remained acute. In the 1950s, this had been the main source for replenishing reserves. By the early 1960s, however, central banks in the EEC member states held about all the dollars they wanted. Yet the inflow of dollars continued unabated, attracted by the investment opportunities offered by the rapidly expanding EEC economies, or seeking a quick return by exploiting the relatively high interest rates on offer in Europe. Some of these funds were exchanged for US gold, some remained in the vaults of European central banks, and some were held by the private banking system. The latter formed the basis for the so-called Eurodollar market and provided a growing wash of international liquidity highly responsive to changes in, or rumours of changes in, market conditions. International speculation in foreign currencies became a daily fact of life. In such circumstances the desire for some preemptive, collective defence mechanism assumed a higher place in the aspirations of the Six.24
Unfortunately, as Tsoukalis has pointed out, the Treaty of Rome provided ‘very little, if any, guidance with respect to monetary policy’. This was hardly surprising since conventional wisdom at the time assumed that the multilateral arrangements enshrined in the Bretton Woods agreements could be fulfilled – and did not envisage their imminent demise. Expectations were high, but the Treaty’s provisions for monetary integration or cooperation (arts 104ff.) were rather pale and dim, stipulating the liberalization of payments on both current and capital accounts. Within a framework of overall equilibrium in the balance of payments, member states were enjoined to pursue policies directed at high employment and stable prices. To accomplish this, it was seen as necessary – and apparently sufficient – that there should be a loose coordination of economic policy accompanied by the creation of an advisory monetary committee to observe, report and comment on current problems. Although exchange rate policy fell within the purview of this body, it remained a national prerogative. Should countries face difficulties, the Community could offer financial assistance in addition to making recommendations, but no fund for this was created.
The first decade of the EEC’s existence brought various proposals but few achievements. It was characterized by almost uninterrupted balance of payments surpluses for the EEC-members and a parallel decline in the position of both reserve currencies, the dollar and sterling. After the devaluations of the French franc in 1958, the payments situation within the Community attained some equilibrium. The small, five-per-cent revaluations by the deutschmark and the guilder in 1961 stemmed largely from the size of their respective surpluses with non-members. The only internal EEC crisis was the Italian deficit in 1963–4 which was resolved by non-Community credits and without recourse to changes in exchange rates. Several initiatives for institutional change and closer monetary integration came from the European Parliament and the Commission.25 Suggestions for closer consultations and the creation of a separate committee of central bankers were accepted in 1961 and 1964 respectively. However, more radical proposals, if not rejected outright, found little positive support among the member states, partly because monetary reform was seen as an issue that required the involvement of the USA and the UK, and partly because the ever-open question of British membership of the Community made several members reluctant to press ahead with more drastic schemes.
Nonetheless, the increasing