Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century. Mark Leonard
politically, the European model will represent an irresistibly attractive way of enhancing their prosperity whilst protecting their security. They will join with the EU in building ‘a New European Century’.
The Power of Weakness
If you put the words ‘Europe’ and ‘crisis’ into the internet search engine Google, over four million entries come up. Newspapers have used them together so often that they are almost interchangeable: on any day over the last fifty years there have been stories of divisions, failure to meet targets, diplomatic wrangles, a perpetual sense of failure. But historians tell a different story from journalists. They describe a continent with one of the most successful foreign policies in history. They tell us that, in just fifty years, war between European powers has become unthinkable; that European economies have caught up with America; and that Europe has brought successive waves of countries out of dictatorship and into democracy.
When they look at a map of the world, they will describe a zone of peace spreading like a blue oil slick – from the west coast of Ireland to the east of the Mediterranean; from the Arctic Circle to the Straits of Gibraltar – sucking in new members in its wake. And around this blue map of the European Union (covering over 450 million citizens) they will describe another zone of 385 million people who share land and sea borders with the EU. Surrounding them another 900 million people are umbilically linked to a European Union that is their biggest trade partner and their biggest source of credit, foreign investment, and aid. These 2 billion people (one third of the world’s population) live in the ‘Eurosphere’: Europe’s zone of influence, which is gradually being transformed by the European project and adopting European ways of doing things.6
Because news is told by journalists rather than historians, European power is often confused with weakness. But when a country like Russia signs the Kyoto Protocol on green-house gas emissions in order to smooth relations with the European Union; when Poland reverses decades of practice to introduce constitutional protection for ethnic minorities to be allowed to join the EU; when an Islamist government in Turkey abandons its own party’s proposals for a penal code that makes adultery a crime punishable by law so as not to attract the ire of Brussels; or a right-wing Republican administration swallows hard and asks the UN for help over Iraq – then we need to question our definitions of power and weakness.
We can see that a new kind of power has evolved that cannot be measured in terms of military budgets or smart missile technology. It works in the long term, and is about reshaping the world rather than winning short-term tussles. Europe’s power is a ‘transformative power’.7 And when we stop looking at the world through American eyes, we can see that each element of European ‘weakness’ is in fact a facet of its extraordinary ‘transformative power’.
Europe doesn’t flaunt its strength or talk about a ‘single sustainable model of progress’. Instead, like an ‘invisible hand’, it operates through the shell of traditional political structures. The British House of Commons, British law courts, and British civil servants are still there, but they have all become agents of the European Union. This is no accident. By creating common standards that are implemented through national institutions, Europe can spread its influence without becoming a target for hostility. While every US company, embassy, and military base is a terrorist target, Europe’s relative invisibility allows it to extend its global reach without the same provocation. The fact that Europe does not have one leader, but rather a network of centres of power united by common policies and goals, means that it can expand to accommodate ever-greater numbers of countries without collapsing, and continue to provide its members with the benefits of being the largest market in the world.
Europeans are not interested in classic geo-politics when they talk to other countries. They start from the other end of the spectrum: What values underpin the State? What are its constitutional and regulatory frameworks? Europe’s obsession with legal frameworks means that it can completely transform the countries it comes into contact with, instead of just skimming the surface. The USA may have changed the regime in Afghanistan, but Europe is changing all of Polish society, from its economic policies and property laws to its treatment of minorities and what gets served on the nation’s tables.
Europe doesn’t change countries by threatening to invade them: its biggest threat is having nothing to do with them at all. While the EU is deeply involved in Serbia’s reconstruction and supports its desire to be ‘rehabilitated’ as a European state, the USA offers Colombia no such hope of integration through multilateral institutions or structural funds, only the temporary ‘assistance’ of American military training missions and aid, and the raw freedom of the US market.
By creating the largest single internal market in the world, Europe has become an economic giant that, according to some calculations, is already the biggest in the world.8 But it is the quality of Europe’s economy that makes it a model: its low levels of inequality allow countries to save on crime and prisons; its energy-efficient economies will protect them from the hike in oil prices; its social model gives people leisure and time with their families. Europe represents a synthesis of the energy and freedom that come from liberalism with the stability and welfare that come from social democracy. As the world becomes richer and moves beyond satisfying basic needs such as hunger and health, the European way of life will become irresistible.
In every corner of the world countries are drawing inspiration from the European model and nurturing their own neighbourhood clubs. This ‘regional domino effect’ will change our ideas of politics, economics and redefine what power means for the twenty-first century.
The Project for a New European Century
Imagine a world of peace, prosperity, and democracy. A world where small countries are as sovereign as large ones. A world where what matters is that you obey the law – rather than whether you are with us or against us; where your democratic values are more important than what you have done in the war on terror this week; where you can have a population of just 400,000 and be part of the biggest economy in the world. What I am asking you to imagine is the ‘New European Century’.
This book is not an attempt to excuse all of Europe’s faults. It has plenty: from the absurdity of its common agricultural policy to the meanness of its immigration policies; from its lack of assertiveness on the world stage to its over-assertiveness in devising standards. However, it is an attempt to defend the European Union from its enemies: both those who seek to hide its extraordinary achievements by blaming it – often unfairly – for all manner of evils, and those who, in the name of the European cause, want to turn it into something else: a federal state on the American model. Both these groups have succeeded in filling Europeans with gloom. My aim is to help cast off the oppressive yoke of pessimism that has enveloped our continent before it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
CHAPTER 1 Europe’s Invisible Hand
In the beginning there was no future, only the recent past. Blood-drenched, genocidal, and everywhere. The bodies had piled up with each new vision of European unity: 184,000 in the Franco-Prussian War, 8 million in the First World War, 40 million in the Second World War.1 Grand plans and charisma had almost extinguished a continent. It needed a miracle to recover, but Europe could not bring itself to believe in romantic leadership again. With six words the French poet Paul Valéry captured the European condition in 1945: ‘We hope vaguely, we dread precisely.’2
That is why Europe’s epic escape from history was guided not by the larger-than-life heroes of the war – people like Churchill or De Gaulle, who inspired a generation to fight – but by a group of almost anonymous technocrats who were dedicated to taking the gun out of Europe’s future. The key figure