What Works: Success in Stressful Times. Hamish McRae
government in the southern city of Curitiba. This is a great example of urban planning-a really well-run city. Another, somewhat more controversial example would have been Protestant churches, which have shot up from tiny beginnings a generation ago to become the fastest-growing Christian organizations in the world.
But the example that I most regret not examining is happiness in São Paulo. It is not that Brazil’s largest city is also its happiest but rather that, insofar as such an intangible can be measured, Brazilian people are among the happiest on earth. To some extent a sunny disposition goes with wealth; people in richer countries generally have more to smile about than those in poorer ones. But Brazil is an outlier. Its people are much happier than one might expect from the statistics, and where better to delve deeper into that than the country’s economic powerhouse, with all its energy and chaos? Maybe another book …
China and India both had to be included for obvious reasons. I have made several visits to both countries but, of course, I have only scratched the surface; no outsider from the West can ever feel they will understand countries with more than a billion citizens. In the case of China, however, one choice was easy: the Shanghai municipality. It is impossible not to be astounded, and at one level alarmed, by what has been achieved. The other choice, the Hong Kong Jockey Club, came about because some friends who live there suggested it. I had known Hong Kong ought to feature in the book somehow, but it was not until I researched the story that I realized this was an ideal way not just into gambling (though I enjoyed my day at the races) but also into a remarkable record in governance.
In India I had to write about the hi-tech industries of Bangalore; no one who goes there escapes unchanged by the experience. There are many other examples of hi-tech complexes in India-I could just as well have gone to Pune or Hyderabad-but Bangalore was where the dream first took root. The other choice, Dharavi in Mumbai, was more quirky, or at least it was until Slumdog Millionaire introduced Dharavi to millions of cinema-goers around the world. I hate the word ‘slum’ just as I hate the glamorizing of poverty. So the surprise there is not just that this community works but that it is an important economic powerhouse, generating a billion dollars of GDP each year.
There should, of course, have been other Asian examples, aside from the single Japanese tale-that of public safety in Tokyo. The great Japanese boom that lasted until 1990 brought the world such consumer triumphs as the Walkman and cars that did not break down. The world has certainly learnt from that, just as we have also learnt, less comfortably, about the threat of stagnation from what happened after 1990. (I co-authored a book, published only in Japanese, about the dangers of such stagnation to Japanese society and its influence in the world.) The example here, however, is not economic but social. It concerns how Tokyo, the largest agglomeration of humankind on the planet, is also the safest large city in the world, giving its citizens a greater degree of freedom to go about their daily lives than the people of any other city. Young women can return home on public transport late at night without any concern they might be attacked or hassled. Salarymen the worse for wear after an evening in the bars can do likewise.
I regret not including Singapore, for it is a fascinating experiment and a hugely successful one. Its attributes, however, are well known. There should be success stories from South-East Asia, for example from South Korea, Malaysia and Indonesia; my only defence is that you cannot cover everything.
The Middle East and Africa have each fielded a tale. I first visited Dubai at the height of the boom and decided there and then that this was a story demanding to be told. I next visited when it was rolling over towards the downturn and the question was whether to keep it in for by then it was clear that it would hit the buffers. Should the example be broadened more generally to the Gulf states, including Abu Dhabi, which has moved to rescue its fellow United Arab Emirates member, and also neighbouring Oman, which has been extraordinarily successful in creating a harmonious mix of ancient and modern? In the end I kept Dubai, partly because it is such an extreme example of property development but more because, for all its shortcomings, I believe it will maintain its role as a trading hub in the years ahead and succeed at it. Meanwhile, the lessons are obvious.
Africa was difficult because the continent is so diverse and its problems so challenging. Primary education in Ghana was one possibility, an example of public sector success under difficult circumstances. I would have liked to highlight the vibrancy of commerce in Nigeria, a success story against an even more difficult background. But in the end the obvious choice was surely the right one: mobile telephony. That is a great story in its own right but also illustrates some of the most remarkable features of the continent, including the ability of its people to adapt technologies to suit the special circumstances of Africa and the sheer commercial creativity of many societies there.
Australia provided an outstanding example, sports education, and even if it is an obvious one, I am happy with that. The message that it does this better than any place on earth has already transformed sports training in Britain, among other places, and in any case I think the story really should go beyond sport: governments can achieve in education if they are determined, set up and fund the project, and are clear about their objectives.
Finally, there is one non-geographical example, the International Baccalaureate. This is an education movement that is genuinely multinational: its legal headquarters are in Switzerland, it has an administrative base in Wales, its largest market is the USA and its fastest-growing areas of activity are in Asia. Schools all over the world are turning to the IB as a way not just to give their students a global academic credential, but much more to equip them to be good citizens of the world in their own individual way. I gave a talk about the changing world economy to a group of IB people and came away thrilled by what I learnt. Visiting schools in the UK, the USA and, by chance, Estonia totally confirmed this view. It is wonderful to know that the next generation of people who will be running the show is so good.
That brings me to the final point: the sense of a global community that came through strongly when I was researching and writing this book. Some general themes of What Works, together with the more specific takeaway lessons, are set out in the concluding chapter. Here are some thoughts about the global context of this book: how these stories exemplify a world where power is shifting and good ideas come from every quarter.
3. THE POWER OF GOOD IDEAS – AND THE VARIETY OF PLACES THEY COME FROM
The world is at one of those inflection points that historians will look back upon with awe. Economic power is rebalancing away from Europe and, to some extent, North America and principally towards Asia. It is the biggest shift of power since the Industrial Revolution, which enabled Europe and then North America to leap ahead of the more populous Asia. In 1820, by far the largest economies in the world were China and India. Fast forward and, within a generation, China seems set to overtake the USA as the largest-it probably overtook Japan to become the second biggest some time in 2009-while India is likely to move into the number three slot. Other countries, including Brazil and Russia, will not be far behind. Most people in the West are vaguely aware of the rising power of the so-called emerging economies, particularly of China, but have hardly begun to think through the consequences of this.
This shift is not just about economics; it is also about ideas. We are moving from a period when most of the ideas that have driven the world economy have come from the West, to one where many will come from the East-and the rest of the emerging world. For the moment the mixed-economy model of Europe, Japan and, in a slightly different form, the USA remains the one that is being adopted in the rest of the world. On the surface it looks as though a form of Western capitalism is being recreated in China and to some extent in India. In the summer of 2009 the Shanghai Stock Exchange became the second largest in the world after New York, in the sense that the value of the companies traded on it was second only to those traded on Wall Street. But that was in part because Chinese banks had adopted a different set of business practices to those of their US counterparts and it was in part, too, because the Chinese government had followed a totally different fiscal strategy from that of the USA or most European governments.
China and India, together with many other emerging nations, came out of the economic downturn in far better shape than the USA, Europe or Japan. On the face of it, the ideas of the emerging world look rather more effective