Tracking the future. Daniel Silke
target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="http://www.un.org">www.un.org
[4]http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2008/pressrelease.pdf
[5]Jack A Goldstone, The New Population Time Bomb, in Foreign Affairs, January/February 2010
[6]http://www.strategy-business.com/article/10105?pg=all
[7]http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9138726/Nanotech_could_make_humans_ immortal_by_2040_futurist_says
[8]Samuel P Huntingdon, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, Simon & Shuster 1996
[9]http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2010/11/sustainable_welfare_systems
[10]Jack A Goldstone, The New Population Time Bomb, in Foreign Affairs, January/February 2010
[11]ibid
[12]http://www.un.org
[13]http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2008/pressrelease.pdf
[14]United Nations Population Division
[15]Jack A Goldstone, The New Population Time Bomb, in Foreign Affairs, January/February 2010
[16]Why Trends Matter, in McKinsey Quarterly, July 2010
[17]http://www.hole-in-the-wall.com/
[18]http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1872/muslim-population-projections-worldwide-fast-growth
[19]United Nations Population Division
[20]Laurence C Smith, The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization’s Northern Future, Dutton 2010
[21]http://www.meattradenewsdaily.co.uk/news/110610/china_of_the_worls_pork_consumption_.aspx
[22]http://www.globaltrade.net/international-trade-import-exports/f/market- research/pdf/Russia/Food-Processing-Processed-Meat-Russian-State-Subsidies-Flush-for-Promoting-Genetics-Trade.html
[23]http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/book/BRICs-Chapter21.pdf
[24]http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2010/09/27/bric-food-file-emerging-markets-redraw-the-world-food-map/
[25]http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2010/09/27/bric-food-file-emerging-markets-redraw-the-world-food-map/
[26]http://www.unwater.org/wwd07/downloads/documents/escarcity.pdf
[27]Scott Phillips, Buying at the Point of Maximum Pessimism, FT Press 2010
[28]http://www.populationspeakout.org/
Chapter 2
Africa Comes of Age
In a world looking for the next investment frontier, the African continent stands out as the next major contributor to global growth. The years to 2050 will make millions of Africans more prosperous. The challenges will be to leverage the continent’s core strengths in commodities, agri-business and a young populace, to ensure that economic growth goes hand in hand with strides in infrastructure development and accountable governance, and to filter real benefits down to Africa’s people.
Long characterised by negative global perceptions, largely as a result of the devastating effect of colonisation and post-colonial mismanagement, Africa and its rise will be a dominant feature of global trade for some time to come.
By 2050, a quarter of the world’s population will be located in Africa[1]. The effect of the population explosion is likely to propel the continent onto the front burner of both economic and political change. Africa is likely to overtake the population size of China and India by 2030. Clearly, issues such as poverty alleviation, economic growth and the rise of the middle classes will shift from being a purely Chinese or Indian phenomenon (in terms of size) to being an African feature.
Analysts are beginning to compare the continent of Africa with China and India. Although problematic because a continent is being compared to individual countries, this will serve to highlight the vast numbers of people in different regions of the world, all developing along a fairly rapid and simultaneous continuum. Using Africa in the continental sense does obscure the very real and severe regional and state-wide differences, but overall macro-trend projections for the continent can be largely true for even the most failed state or under-developed region. As macro-trends go, Africa’s share of the global population has increased from a mere 9 percent in 1960 to 15 percent in 2010. By 2050, this will have risen to 23 percent – substantially larger than China or India[2].
These seismic shifts in population growth are set to transform certain regions more than others. Already the focus of much market attention, both East and West Africa are likely to see the biggest demographic add-ons.
Huge increases in population might make the average reader lament the continued population ‘time bomb’ facing the continent. While poverty levels are likely to remain far too high, Africa’s share of younger people is likely to rise, not because of dramatically increased fertility rates and larger families, but as a result of a relative drop in the number of workforce members – aged 15–65 years – in the other major population centres of China and India. From 2030, Africa’s share of younger people will begin to dramatically outstrip that of both China and India as their fertility rates fall back (see Chapter 6).
A rise in younger working-age men and women in Africa – perhaps as many as 1.1 billion by 2040 – creates the potential for both economic advancement and social dislocation. It therefore won’t be surprising to see a contradiction occur across the continent, where societies that don’t open their economies, liberalise trade conditions and curb corrupt governance continue to languish as failed states – and even rogue states. South Africa, as economically advanced as it might be, already grapples with one of the highest unemployment rates for any country of its level of development. Pockets of failures will therefore continue to destabilise vast swathes of the continent, despite the positive