Foxy Futurists and how to become one. Clem Sunter
ascent with an entrepreneurial burst of energy – Japan and Germany after the Second World War and China after 1978. They are now respectively the second-, fourth- and third-largest economies in the world.
Family-owned businesses were a critical element in the lift-off. Consequently a flag that will demonstrate progress in this area will be the transformation of the micro-lending industry. Why not invite Nobel Laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus, who founded the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh, to be a consultant on what we should do here? A second flag comprises more generous tax incentives to compensate for the risk of starting a small business, e.g. offering a complete tax holiday on profit up to a cumulative total of R1m and exemption from capital gains tax for investors in businesses below a certain size.
The odds that we give at the moment are 70% to a U-turn in the Premier League and 30% to being relegated to the Second Division. This may sound optimistic to some; but we’re probably out of the Relegation Zone already, not because we’ve gone up but because the rest of the world has gone down.
Not a bad place
A positive flag is that in the 2009 World Competitiveness Yearbook, produced by the International Institute for Management Development, South Africa has risen to 48th out of 57 countries, compared to 53rd out of 55 last year. Reasons given include our resilience to the global financial crisis and our recovery from the rolling electricity blackouts experienced at the beginning of 2008. Indeed, our financial and insurance sectors have almost escaped the whole toxic debt tsunami unscathed; and we are relatively unencumbered by debt as a nation.
In addition, we shall probably experience a shallower ‘V’ than Europe and the US despite the dramatic decline in our GDP. All these sporting events on our calendar act as an excellent gap-filler. On top of that, Zimbabwe has every chance of resurrecting its economy in the near future, for which we will act as a gateway. On the other hand, we have to make tangible progress in the areas where we rank lowest in the Premier League – unemployment, brain drain, available skills, life expectancy/health problems, pupil-teacher ratios in secondary schools and organised crime.
In conclusion, we feel that South Africa is not a bad place to see out the global economic Hard Times, or even the Perfect Storm if it looks like engulfing the world. Obviously quite a few young South Africans living overseas agree with us. They are returning home.
The X factor
| I received an email from Siya describing his first year at Harvard. He has met lots of interesting people and it is clear that he is treated with the respect he deserves. America celebrates individual excellence. We – like Australians – cut down the tall poppies and tolerate mediocrity. It never ceases to amaze me to see how few people know who Siya is. Even in a relatively cynical society like Britain, he would be a household name. At some stage, the penny will drop that if we want to raise the general level of self-esteem in this country, we must create a bandwagon effect around outstanding individuals like Siya. If he can do it, so can I. |
I was Chairperson of the Anglo American Open Scholarship panel for many years. Because we offered not only basic university fees but also a generous living allowance plus an overseas trip, it was like auditioning for Idols.
We got an unbelievable response every year, which involved some of the most intelligent matric students in South Africa.
Last year in January, we interviewed the brightest of them all – a young man called Siyabulela Xuza. He hails from Umtata in the Eastern Cape and was awarded an Academic Scholarship to St John’s College – a top private school in Johannesburg – from Grade 8.
The first question we put to him, as we did to all other candidates, was: “What degree have you chosen, and why?”
His response was as follows: “I’ve chosen Chemical Engineering at the University of Cape Town. The reason is that I developed a fascination for chemicals when I was 12 years old. I mixed them in my mother’s kitchen and caused minor explosions to her utter dismay.
“Then I decided to concentrate on a particular project. It was to create an energy-intensive fuel which was safer and more effective than the stuff Nasa uses to propel its rockets into outer space.
“I managed to build a rocket which broke the South African Amateur Altitude Record. I then entered the Eskom National Science Expo and won gold, as well as the Dr Derek Gray Memorial Award for the most prestigious project in South Africa. The best prize, however, was to be invited to the International Youth Science Fair in Sweden, where I met the King and Queen of Sweden as well as attending the Nobel Prize ceremony in Stockholm.
“The consequence of that was to be entered into the world’s biggest student science event at the Intel International Science and Engineering Fair in the US. I won two top awards, but what really made my day was that the Nasa-affiliated Lincoln Laboratory was so impressed by my achievement that they named a minor planet after me!”
So, naturally, we gave him the scholarship.
Three months later, he came running up to me at ORT International Airport.
“Hey, Mr Sunter, do you remember me?”
“Siya,” I replied, “I’m never going to forget you. How’s the University of Cape Town?”
“You haven’t heard?” he said, with a questioning smile. “I’ve been awarded another scholarship to go to Harvard University, so I’m off there in the fall.”
He even had the American lingo.
So there you have it folks, he is studying at the university that is ranked No. 1 in the world.
If you have a powerful-enough telescope, you will find his planet, now known as ‘Siyaxuza’, near Jupiter in the night sky.
My question to you as readers of this column is simple: How many of you know that this guy exists?
Our media are very bad at celebrating excellence, even when we have a rocket scientist in our midst!
Beyond reasonable greed
| As a foxy futurist, one of the other talents you have to possess is the ability to define the rules of the game that are valid, no matter which scenario materialises. For example, in our aforementioned matrix for South Africa we rule out a scenario of being competitive and having a civil war at the same time. It is as impossible as an apple defying the law of gravity and floating up from the ground to re-attach itself to the tree. The great thing about rules of the game is that by crossing out the scenarios that flout them, you end up with fewer scenarios. In our terminology, you narrow down the cone of uncertainty by excluding a whole range of possible futures. In this case, there can be no sustainable economic recovery as long as bankers and others go beyond reasonable greed. The phrase is chosen because greed and fear are part of the human DNA. It is how we balance them with love and generosity that counts. Given the way the bankers are leaping to the defence of paying astronomical bonuses again, I am reminded of a refrain in a 1960s folk song: “When will they ever learn?” |
In 2002, I co-authored a book with Wayne Visser entitled Beyond Reasonable Greed: Why Sustainable Business is a Much Better Idea. Wayne, at the time, was Director of Sustainability Services at KPMG in South Africa. He now lives in Cambridge, England, where he has made a name in the corporate social responsibility field.
“Greed is good.” Remember the phrase immortalised by Michael Douglas, who played Gordon Gekko in the 1987 movie Wall Street? Well, Wayne and I argued that the world has more than lived up to these words by pursuing the principle that excessive greed is even better. This is what we said in the book:
“Each day, the turnover in the world’s financial markets is now in excess of $1.5 trillion. It is at least twenty times more than it was in 1980. The explosive growth of this global casino is largely as a result of introducing two new games: futures and derivatives trading. It all began on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange in 1971 and has escalated to a level where only around 2% of capital outflows are backed by trade in real goods.
“One