Prospect of Biological and Nuclear Terrorism in Central Asia and Russia. Musa Khan Jalalzai
weapons to military commands across the world. This is a new and important development in the future of nuclear war between states and armies. Experts have warned that intentions of the US army are dangerous as it has planned to adorn terrorist groups like ISIS, and Central Asia extremist with nuclear explosive and biological weapons to make Central Asia and Caucasus the war zone. Analyst Andrew Salmon (Asia Times, 13 April 2020) has noted some aspects of this weapon and argued that this weapon can identify signals and objects, deciphering massive sets of data faster than humans can, and make related predictions:
“Unmanned aerial vehicles, unmanned underwater vehicles and space planes are likely to be “the AI-enabled weapons of choice for future nuclear delivery,” a leading military think tank revealed during a recent seminar in Seoul. AI, or artificial intelligence, enables faster decision-making than humans and can replace humans in the decision matrix at a time when leadership reacts too slowly – or is dead. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or SIPRI, released its report The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Strategic Stability and Nuclear Risk Volume II; East Asian Perspectives in a forum hosted by the Swedish Embassy in Seoul. The question is whether weaponized AI, through its deterrent or defensive purposes, is a risk ameliorator or whether by either bringing new or enhanced capabilities to new theaters of combat, and by obviating existing systems and weapons, it generates yet steeper risks. Lora Saalman, the report’s editor, noted that AI is “a suite of technologies, not a technology.” In terms of early-warning systems, Saalman noted, AI can identify signals and objects, deciphering massive sets of data faster than humans can, and make related predictions. In command and control, it can recognize patterns and enhance protection against cyber-attack. In cyber warfare, automation already exists, and some sub-systems already operate autonomously. AI offers information warriors new tools to manipulate (human) nuclear decision-makers – for example, it can generate faux orders or audio-visuals to trick operators, Saalman said. In terms of “hard” capabilities, it increases the onboard intelligence of airborne or waterborne drones, allowing them to better penetrate enemy defenses, making nuclear delivery both more maneuverable – and more autonomous”.
This weapon will be working on different fronts. The navies of multiple countries, including the US, UK, France, Russia, and China are currently creating unmanned vehicles to be used in oceanic warfare to discover and terminate underwater mines. For instance, the REMUS is a three-foot long robot used to clear mines in one square mile within 16 hours. In recent years, China has overtaken the U.S. in numbers, with more than 500 ships, including 75 submarines and three aircraft carriers. To get to that point significant challenges must still be overcome, including vehicle manoeuvrability, power restrictions, autonomous system integration and cooperation between underwater systems. Organisations, including the US Office for Naval Research, the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and NATO have been working alongside commercial and non-commercial parties to address these issues. Analyst Andrew Salmon (Asia Times, 13 April 2020) highlighted Russian and American weapons development in the twenty-first century:
“In the offensive front, strategic bombers and missile-armed submarines may be replaced by robots. Platforms such as unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs), unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and spaceplanes “… provide resiliency and survivability,” SIPRI noted. “These two aims indicate why such vehicles are likely to be the AI-enabled platforms of choice for future nuclear delivery.” One such asset is a Russian nuclear-powered, nuclear-capable underwater drone “Poseidon.” Torpedo-shaped, 25-meters long, with a modular nuclear reactor, it can move at more than 100km/h at a depth of 1000 meters and is armed with cobalt weapons. Though not yet in service, in 2019 the Russian Navy ordered 30. “Poseidon is a fantastic machine, but its consequences could be catastrophic,” said South Korean Hwang Il-soon, a nuclear engineer at the School of Mechanical Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering. “It is a kind of dirty bomb – it creates very strong alpha radiation.” He was dismayed by the weapon as Russia is one of the world’s leaders in the peaceful use of nuclear energy, particularly in reprocessing spent fuel. Saalman noted that there are indications that Poseidon may be deployed to loiter off US coasts. “Weapons like Poseidon should be banned not just for their environmental impact but for their negative impact on strategic stability,” said Michiru Nishida, Special Assistant for Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Policy at Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “But it is different for a country like Russia that sees it as a stabilizing factor.”
Nuclear terrorism is developing in changing shape as great powers are making dangerous weapons to use against each other. These fissile materials might be purchased from foreign sources on the black market or stolen from a nuclear facility. Heads of states have often stated at the nuclear security summits the reality of the threat, but their intentions are understandable from their resolve to become strongest nuclear powers. Most nuclear power reactors are openly vulnerable to attack from terrorist groups, as they are protected only by wire fences and local security personnel. Attacks in Europe and elsewhere sponsored and inspired by the Islamic State group demonstrate that its reach, and determination to cause damage and chaos as possible, even as it loses territory in Syria and Iraq.
The possibility of future terrorist activities using nuclear devices is a concern that all governments must confront. The growth in nuclear power is expected to be greatest among states that do not have a long or, in some cases, any history of nuclear power or limited or no experience in securing nuclear materials. The most analysed worst-case scenario concerning nuclear terrorism has primarily focused on terrorists detonating a nuclear bomb. The important fact is that there is a well-documented trade in dirtybomb material Black market. Moldova is an important node in the radiological and nuclear smuggling network.
In April 2020, the US government conducted military excercise to showcase that its forces would be ready for the coming nuclear war with Russia. Julian Borger (24 February 2020) reported: “The exercise comes just weeks after the US deployed a new low-yield submarine-launched warhead commissioned by Donald Trump, as a counter to Russian tactical weapons and intended to deter their use. According to a transcript of a background briefing by senior Pentagon officials, the defence secretary, Mark Esper, took part in what was described as a “mini-exercise” at US Strategic Command in Nebraska. Esper played himself in the simulated crisis, in which Russia launched an attack on a US target in Europe. “The scenario included a European contingency where you are conducting a war with Russia, and Russia decides to use a low-yield limited nuclear weapon against a site on NATO territory,” a senior official said. “And then you go through the conversation that you would have with the secretary of defense and then with the president, ultimately, to decide how to respond.”
The Federation of American Scientists revealed in late January 2020 that the U.S. Navy had deployed for the first time a submarine armed with a low-yield Trident nuclear warhead. The USS Tennessee deployed from Kings Bay Submarine Base in Georgia in late 2019. The W76-2 warhead, which is facing criticism at home and abroad, is estimated to have about a third of the explosive power of the atomic bomb the U.S. dropped on Hiroshima. As the nation focused on President Trump’s impeachment trial, a major story recently broke about a new development in U.S. nuclear weapons policy that received little attention.
However, in March 2020, Daryl G. Kimball argued that “the exercise perpetuates the dangerous illusion that a nuclear war can be fought and won. The new warhead, which packs a five-kiloton explosive yield, is large enough destroy a large city. It would be delivered on the same type of long-range ballistic missile launched from the same strategic submarine that carries missiles loaded with 100-kiloton strategic warheads. Russian military leaders would be hard pressed to know, in the heat of a crisis, whether the missile was part of a “limited” strike or the first wave of an all-out nuclear attack”.
China will soon have deployed a nuclear triad of strategic land, sea, and air-launched nuclear systems akin to America’s. The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency projects China’s nuclear warhead stockpile may double by 2030. However, Simon Tisdall (17 August 2019) argued that the US government increased spending on modernizing military technology: “Vladimir Putin unveiled the missile, known in Russia as the Storm Petrel and by Nato as Skyfall, in March last year, claiming its unlimited range and manoeuvrability would render it “invincible”. The Russian president’s boasts look less credible now. But Putin is undeterred.
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