The Creativity Code. Marcus du Sautoy
to use passing data made available by FIFA during the 2010 World Cup to see which players ranked most highly. The results were fascinating. If you analysed England’s style of play, two players, Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard, emerged with a markedly higher rank than others. This reflects the fact that the ball very often went through these two midfielders: take them out and England’s game collapses. England did not get very far that year in the World Cup – they were knocked out early by their old nemesis, Germany.
Contrast this with the eventual winners: Spain. The algorithm shared the rank uniformly around the whole team, indicating that there was no clear hub through which the game was being played. This is a reflection of the very successful ‘total football’ or ‘tiki-taka’ style played by Spain, in which players constantly pass the ball around, a strategy that contributed to Spain’s ultimate success.
Unlike many sports in America that thrive on data, it has taken some time for football to take advantage of the mathematics and statistics bubbling underneath the game. But by the 2018 World Cup in Russia many teams boasted a scientist on board to crunch the numbers to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the opposition, including how the network of each team behaves.
A network analysis has even been applied to literature. Andrew Beveridge and Jie Shan took the epic saga A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin, otherwise known as Game of Thrones. Anyone who knows the story will be aware that predicting which characters will make it through to the next volume, let alone the next chapter, is notoriously tricky, as Martin is ruthless at killing off even the best characters he has created.
Beveridge and Shan decided to create a network between characters in the books. They identified 107 key people who became the nodes of the network. The characters were then connected with weighted edges according to the strength of the relationship. But how can an algorithm assess the importance of a connection? The algorithm was simply asked to count the number of times the two names appeared in the text within fifteen words of each other. This doesn’t measure friendship – it indicates some measure of interaction or connection between them.
They decided to analyse the third volume in the series, A Storm of Swords, as the narrative had settled down by this point, and began by constructing a page rank analysis of the nodes or characters in the network. Three characters quickly stood out as important to the plot: Tyrion, Jon Snow and Sansa Stark. Anyone who has read the books or seen the series would not be surprised by this revelation. What is striking is that a computer algorithm which does not understand what it is reading achieved this same insight. It did so not simply by counting how many times a character’s name appears – that would pull out other names. It turned out that a subtler analysis of the network revealed the true protagonists.
To date, all three characters have survived Martin’s ruthless pen which has cut short some of the other key characters in the third volume. This is the mark of a good algorithm: it can be used in multiple scenarios. This one can tell you something useful from football to Game of Thrones.
Maths, the secret to a happy marriage
Sergey Brin and Larry Page may have cracked the code to steer you to websites you don’t even know you’re looking for, but can an algorithm really do something as personal as find your soulmate? Visit OKCupid and you’ll be greeted by a banner proudly declaring: ‘We use math to find you dates’.
These dating websites use a ‘matching algorithm’ to search through profiles and match people up according to their likes, dislikes and personality traits. They seem to be doing a pretty good job. In fact, the algorithms seem to be better than we are on our own: recent research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences looked at 19,000 people who married between 2005 and 2012 and found that those who met online were happier and had more stable marriages.
The first algorithm to win its creators a Nobel Prize, originally formulated by two mathematicians, David Gale and Lloyd Shapley, in 1962, used a matching algorithm to solve something called ‘the Stable Marriage Problem’. Gale, who died in 2008, missed out on the award, but Shapley shared the prize in 2012 with the economist Alvin Roth, who saw the importance of the algorithm not just to the question of relationships but also to social problems including assigning health care and student places fairly.
Shapley was amused by the award: ‘I consider myself a mathematician and the award is for economics,’ he said at the time, clearly surprised by the committee’s decision. ‘I never, never in my life took a course in economics.’ But the mathematics he cooked up has had profound economic and social implications.
The Stable Marriage Problem that Shapley solved with Gale sounds more like a parlour game than a piece of cutting-edge economic theory. To illustrate the precise nature of the problem, imagine you’ve got four heterosexual men and four heterosexual women. They’ve been asked to list the four members of the opposite sex in order of preference. The challenge for the algorithm is to match them up in such a way as to come up with stable marriages. What this means is that there shouldn’t be a man and woman who would prefer to be with one another than with the partner they’ve been assigned. Otherwise there’s a good chance that at some point they’ll leave their partners to run off with one another. At first sight it isn’t at all clear, even with four pairs, that it is possible to arrange this.
Let’s take a particular example and explore how Gale and Shapley could guarantee a stable pairing in a systematic and algorithmic manner. The four men will be played by the kings from a pack of cards: King of Spades, King of Hearts, King of Diamonds and King of Clubs. The women are the corresponding queens. Each king and queen has listed his or her preferences:
For the kings:
For the queens:
Now suppose you were to start by proposing that each king be paired with the queen of the same suit. Why would this result in an unstable pairing? The Queen of Clubs has ranked the King of Clubs as her least preferred partner so frankly she’d be happier with any of the other kings. And check out the King of Hearts’ list: the Queen of Hearts is at the bottom of his list. He’d certainly prefer the Queen of Clubs over the option he’s been given. In this scenario, we can envision the Queen of Clubs and the King of Hearts running away together. Matching kings and queens via their suits would lead to unstable marriages.
How do we match them so we won’t end up with two cards running off with each other? Here is the recipe Gale and Shapley cooked up. It consists of several rounds of proposals by the queens to the kings until a stable pairing finally emerges. In the first round of the algorithm, the queens all propose to their first choice. The Queen of Spades’ first choice is the King of Hearts. The Queen of Hearts’ first choice is the King of Clubs. The Queen of Diamonds chooses the King of Spades and the Queen of Clubs proposes to the King of Hearts. So it seems that the King of Hearts is the heart-throb of the pack, having received two proposals. He chooses which of the two queens he prefers, which is the Queen of Clubs, and rejects the Queen of Spades. So we have three provisional engagements, and one rejection.
First round
The rejected queen strikes off her first-choice king and in the next round moves on to propose to her second choice: the King of Spades. But now the King of Spades has two proposals. His first proposal from round one, the Queen of Diamonds, and a new proposal from the Queen of Spades. Looking at his ranking, he’d actually prefer the Queen of Spades. So he rather cruelly rejects the Queen of Diamonds (his provisional engagement on the first round of the algorithm).
Second round
Which