Ignore the Hype. Brian Perry
can use your newfound freedom to generate excitement in the other areas of your life.
Broadly speaking there are two main approaches to navigating the financial markets. In Aesop's time they were the tortoise and the hare, but today they are known as trading and investing.
Trading is exciting and promises great riches quickly. This is the world of hype, media speculation, and background noise. However, as you'll read in this book, the odds of trading your way to success are quite slim, and you'll be competing against other players more skilled and better equipped than you.
On the other hand, investing can be dull and promises moderate riches slowly. But the odds of success are quite high, and you won't need to compete with and defeat the best players in the world in order to achieve success. Best of all, the long-run growth of the economy will act as a wind at your sails on your voyage toward financial freedom.
This book will examine the lessons offered from a century of financial experience in an effort to accomplish three goals:
1 Articulate the differences between short-term trading and long-term investing, and more importantly, convince you that an investment-oriented approach offers the best odds of success.
2 Explore and explain a variety of tools and techniques to help patient, long-term investors set and meet their financial goals.
3 Provide strategies you must utilize to avoid roadblocks on your path to financial success.
You'll notice that on that last point I used the word “must” as opposed to “should,” because ignoring the noise and following a patient approach to your finances isn't something you “should” do. The steps laid out in this book aren't optional, unless you consider financial freedom optional. However, I personally believe that financial freedom is something each and every one of us must achieve in order to lead fulfilling lives. And, I believe that the lessons in this book are things that you must do in order to achieve financial freedom. Ergo, as my old college logic professor would conclude, you must do the things in this book in order to lead your most fulfilling life.
The steps I've laid out have never been easy. And the continued evolution of the financial markets, media, and technology has only served to exacerbate the eternal challenge individuals have faced in resisting the temptation to make changes to their portfolio. When you, too, face such a challenge, as you often will, try to remember the words of Jack Bogle, the founder of Vanguard and inventor of the index mutual fund, who famously said:
Don't do something, just stand there!
This book is intended to make following that advice easier, and to make sure that, while you're doing so, your portfolio is invested in such a way that your chances of a successful outcome are as high as possible.
In investing, as in life, there are no certainties, but you can increase the probability that you'll meet your financial goals by incorporating the experiences of investors just like you. And just to reiterate, while there are no guarantees, given enough time, the techniques and strategies laid out in this book will enhance your odds of success to the point where financial freedom is nearly guaranteed.
If that promise sounds like something you'd be interested in, read on, and discover the things you must do to achieve financial freedom.
Chapter 1 The Times They Are a-Changin'
In order to be financially successful, you must learn to ignore the hype and drown out the noise. That is not negotiable. If you cannot ignore the mayhem that surrounds you, you have virtually no chance of achieving financial success.
Yes, this can be difficult. In fact, entire industries exist for no other reason than to bombard you with a constant barrage of hype and noise. Sometimes it's the media, and flashing headlines warning that you risk financial destruction if you don't do something right now. Sometimes, it's brokerage research reports touting the latest hot stock tip.
Almost as dangerous are the legions of nonprofessionals eagerly lining up to give you advice on a subject they themselves know little about. Here I'm referring to well-meaning, but misguided efforts by friends and family to tell you how to make financial decisions.
Obviously, the people in your life aren't intentionally leading you astray. And sometimes their advice may be sound. But there are two problems with following their advice.
The first problem is that the advice itself may be not be very good. Think about it this way. If you go to the gym and get a personal trainer to help you get in shape, you're probably going to look for somebody fitter than you, somebody who obviously knows their way around the gym. The same should hold true for your finances. Before taking financial advice from somebody, you should have a pretty good idea of what their personal financial situation is.
Does that person have similar goals, constraints, and resources as you? And have they done a good job within those confines of navigating the path to the financial future that you desire? If so, maybe it does make sense to listen to what they have to say. But if not, it's best to politely thank them and then move on.
The second challenge is that, even if the information itself is valid, it may not fit within the context of your overall plan. Remember, you're not trying to build a collection of investment ideas or financial concepts, but, rather, a coherent and holistic collection of strategies designed to help you meet your unique financial goals. That is why the first step on the road to financial freedom is always a financial plan.
The constant barrage of hype and noise will be a recurring theme throughout this book. The best, and perhaps only way to ignore all this is to find your True North, otherwise known as the financial plan and strategies most likely to help you achieve your financial goals. In identifying this plan, you must come to a level of conviction that allows you to avoid the temptation to stray from the path you've identified. If you can do this, your odds of financial success are high. Failure to achieve this conviction level often comes at great cost.
When it comes to your finances there are two main approaches. They are speculation and investing and they are as different as night and day.
There Is a World of Difference Between Speculation and Investing
Investors let markets work for them over time. Investors are bloodied, but not knocked out, by market crashes. Investors let the long-run-upward progress of the economy and corporate profits work in their favor, comfortable in the knowledge that time is their best friend, and compound interest their staunchest ally.
Speculators, on the other hand, depend on the greater fool theory, because inherent in every speculation is the belief that you know better than others what something is truly worth.
Speculation, otherwise known as short-term trading, is an exceptionally difficult endeavor, which is why successful traders are so well paid.
Furthermore, an already difficult task becomes nearly impossible when done without the benefits that come from a full-time, professional focus upon the financial markets. The vast majority of individuals should therefore avoid trying to trade as if they were a hedge fund manager or investment banker.
For one thing, the risk-and-reward scenarios for hedge fund managers are extremely skewed. If a hedge fund manager is successful, he or she is richly rewarded. If on the other hand managers lose their investors' money, the worst thing that can happen is that they have to close their funds. Importantly, the managers do not have to reimburse the investors' losses. This means that hedge fund managers have a strong incentive to invest aggressively in hopes of generating sky-high returns.
Compare this situation to your own. You benefit from higher investment returns through a larger portfolio and eventually perhaps an enhanced standard of living. In this way, your upside incentive is similar to that of a hedge fund manager. However, it is on the downside