Economics of G20. Группа авторов
before the crisis, but the African countries fared better after the crisis. This suggests that the crisis had a more lasting effect on growth in the Latin American countries.
As far as GFCF is concerned, it rose in 2008–2009 immediately after the crisis, despite the slowdown in growth. Subsequently, in the period 2010–2015, it decreased for LA and SSA while it continued to increase in Asia. However, the share of GFCF in GDP was higher post crisis as compared to the period before the crisis for all the three regions. The investment in Asian countries was financed by higher savings rates, and they could maintain their investment rates while maintaining a sustainable CAB. The African countries had CA deficits higher than reported historically and further adjustment might be needed if higher growth rates are to be sustained. Latin American countries have seen the temporary increase in savings rates during 2008–2009 being reversed. Thus, investment rates have fallen and CAB has deteriorated. They still face major problems of adjustment.
There was an increase in the share of XG&S in GDP in all three regions in the years 2008–2009, the immediate aftermath of the crisis. The increase was particularly large for LA. Subsequently, in the period 2011–2015, the share fell in LA and Asia but continued to increase in SSA.
The CAB improved for countries in LA and Asia during the period 2008–2009 as compared to the pre-crisis period as there was a surge in exports. The increase in GFCF coupled with the improvement in the CAB implies a massive increase in savings. In the case of Africa also, there was an increase in the share of exports in GDP. But the increase in the share of GFCF in GDP, from 18.4% to 23.5%, was really large and much larger than the increase in Asia and LA. Savings could not increase correspondingly. Thus, despite an increase in the share of exports in GDP, the CAB deteriorated substantially.3 In the recovery period, 2010–2015, the CAB deteriorated in LA and Asia.
The high savings rates achieved during the crisis years of 2008–2009 could not be sustained, and fell in all three regions. The fall in the savings rate in LA was much larger than in the other two regions, so that the GFCF ratio fell and the CAB deteriorated. Africa’s savings rate in 2010–2015 was still substantially above that in 1990–2007. In the case of Asia, the decline in the savings rate was very small so that the GFCF increased with only some worsening in the CAB.
The performance of the individual countries presents a mixed picture. Only Bolivia, Pakistan and South Africa have significantly different growth rates, the former higher and the latter two lower. Larger countries have not witnessed a large fall in growth rates, the burden of adjustment has fallen mostly on small countries. Export performance seems to be related to growth. Growth increased in Bolivia and export share increased, and in Pakistan and South Africa growth decreased and export share fell. The countries also had a higher money growth and a lower interest rate, which helped to maintain the investment rate.
Our analysis using Pearson’s rank correlation confirms this, as does the correlation analysis. Countries with good export performance grew faster before the crisis and their better export performance enabled them to build up reserves. They were able to maintain higher rates of investment and growth because of continued good export performance and their accumulated foreign exchange reserves.
References
Agarwal M. and Chakravarty A. (2017). Growth of the Manufacturing Sector: Future Constraints in Manmohan Agarwal, Jing Wang and John Whalley (eds.) The Economies of China and India Cooperation and Conflict, Volume 1: China and India: The International Context and Economic Growth, Manufacturing Performance and Rural Development, World Scientific, Singapore, 2017.
Blanchard, O., Faruqee, H., and Das, M. (2010). The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries, Brookings Paper on Economic Activity, pp. 1–49.
Calvo, S. G. (2010). The Global Financial Crisis of 2008–10: A View from the Social Sectors, UNDP Human Development Reports, pp. 1–69.
Calvo, S. G. (2013). Financial Crises, Social Impact, and Risk Management: Lessons and Challenges, World Development Report, pp. 1–45.
Chhibber, A., Ghosh, J., and Palanivel, T. (2009). The Global Financial Crisis and the AsiaPacific Region, UNDP Regional Centre for the Asia and the Pacific.
Crotty, J. (2008). Structural Causes of the Global Financial Crisis: A Critical Assessment of the “New Financial Architecture”, University of Massachusetts Working Paper, pp. 1–63.
Dullien S., Kotte, D. J., Marquez, A., and Priewe, J. (2010). The Financial and Economic Crisis of 2008–2009 and the Developing Countries. New York and Geneva: UNCTAD.
Griffith-Jones, S., and Ocampo, J. A. (2009). The Financial Crisis And Its Impact On Developing Countries, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth , pp. 1–20.
Heider, F., and Hoerova, M. (2009). Interbank Lending, Credit-Risk Premia, and Collateral, International Journal of Central Banking, Vol. 5, pp. 1–39.
International Monetary Fund (2009). The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on SubSaharan Africa, IMF.
International Monetary Fund (2010). World Economic Outlook, IMF.
Naude, W. (2009). The Financial Crisis of 2008 and the Developing Countries, WIDER Discussion Paper, pp. 1–20.
Rodrik, D. (2009). Growth after the Crisis. Commission on Growth and Development, Working Paper No. 65, pp. 1–44.
World Bank (2009). Latin America Beyond the Crisis: Impacts, Policies and Opportunities, World Bank.
World Bank (2010). Global Economic Prospects. World Bank.
World Bank and IMF Staff (2009). The Global Financial Crisis and Its Impact on Developing Countries, Global Monitoring Report.
1The word “despite” is used deliberately. It is often thought that the fortunes of developing countries are tied to the performance in developed countries. The latter provide markets for exports of developing countries considered to be an important ingredient for rapid growth in developing countries. Such linkages between developing and developed countries seem to have operated during the high growth in the pre-1973 period. Linkage was much weaker during the 2001–2007 period.
2Egypt and Russia follow a somewhat similar pattern. Russia is different because of the massive upheaval in the 1990s associated with its transformation from a planned economy. It follows the same pattern if the pre-crisis period is taken as 2000–2007.
3Egypt and Russia follow a somewhat similar pattern. Russia is different because of the massive upheaval in the 1990s associated with its transformation from a planned economy. It follows the same pattern if the pre-crisis period is taken as 2000–2007.
Конец ознакомительного фрагмента.
Текст предоставлен ООО «ЛитРес».
Прочитайте эту книгу целиком, купив полную легальную версию на ЛитРес.
Безопасно оплатить книгу можно банковской картой Visa, MasterCard, Maestro, со счета мобильного телефона, с платежного терминала, в салоне МТС или Связной, через PayPal, WebMoney, Яндекс.Деньги, QIWI Кошелек, бонусными картами или другим удобным Вам способом.