Intermittent Demand Forecasting. John E. Boylan

Intermittent Demand Forecasting - John E. Boylan


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researched more extensively. We now turn our attention to the left-parenthesis upper R comma upper S right-parenthesis (or ‘order‐up‐to’) inventory policy and the reasons for its popularity.

      When the ordering costs are low relative to review costs, an order‐up‐to policy should be almost optimal. All three policies (left-parenthesis upper R comma upper S right-parenthesis, left-parenthesis upper R comma s comma upper S right-parenthesis, and left-parenthesis upper R comma s comma upper Q right-parenthesis) incur the same review costs (for the same review interval, upper R), but the left-parenthesis upper R comma upper S right-parenthesis policy leads to more frequent ordering, everything else being equal. If the additional ordering cost is low, its impact on the relative cost performance of the left-parenthesis upper R comma upper S right-parenthesis policy is only minimal, and worth incurring in light of the ease of implementation of such policies.

      Sani (1995) developed a stock control model that reflected the main characteristics of a real inventory system. The model was of the left-parenthesis upper R comma upper S right-parenthesis form where an overnight emergency delivery was offered in the case of a stockout. The model was used to conduct a sensitivity analysis of the inventory costs and customer service levels achieved by employing the real system. Sani argued that the left-parenthesis upper R comma upper S right-parenthesis system represents many real‐world cases and is intuitively and computationally more appealing to practitioners than the left-parenthesis upper R comma s comma upper S right-parenthesis system. Moreover, using upper R to coordinate ordering over multiple SKUs is preferable to using s (which would vary across SKUs). It is also easier to optimise the left-parenthesis upper R comma upper S right-parenthesis system, as we know that the inventory position will be back up to upper S at every review point. Finally, left-parenthesis upper R comma upper S right-parenthesis policies have been shown to be very robust (Bijvank et al. 2014) and that may help further explain their prevalence in real‐world applications. Most of the empirical studies in the area of intermittent demand forecasting and stock control have considered an left-parenthesis upper R comma upper S right-parenthesis system.

      All three periodic review systems discussed in this chapter are possible candidates for implementation with intermittent demand items. Arguably, there are some disadvantages associated with the left-parenthesis upper R comma s comma upper S right-parenthesis and left-parenthesis upper R comma s comma upper Q right-parenthesis policies, but the evidence is not conclusive. left-parenthesis upper R comma upper S right-parenthesis systems seem to be appropriate for intermittent demand. Although they may not be universally recommended for application, they are very appealing both in practical and theoretical terms. If the review interval has been determined, then there is only one parameter to optimise (upper S). This simplifies calculations and enables a more focused discussion about optimisation and the integration of forecasting into inventory calculations, than dealing with two parameters (which would be the case for left-parenthesis upper R comma s comma upper Q right-parenthesis and left-parenthesis upper R comma s comma upper S right-parenthesis policies).

      The periodic order‐up‐to level system will be used for the remainder of this book. However, before we close this section some variations of this system should be discussed. This follows in Section 2.5.4.

      2.5.4 Variations of the left-parenthesis upper R comma upper S right-parenthesis Periodic Policy

      The left-parenthesis upper R comma upper S right-parenthesis can be viewed as a periodic implementation of the left-parenthesis s comma upper S right-parenthesis policy or as a special case of the left-parenthesis upper R comma s comma upper S right-parenthesis policy for s equals upper S minus 1. The latter is an example of an left-parenthesis upper S minus 1 comma upper S right-parenthesis policy, which may be operated under continuous or periodic review.


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