Putin's Master Plan. Douglas E. Schoen
the internal collapse of the American-European partnership while also dividing the Europeans. However, since our own leaders have often proved so inept, it’s not always easy to distinguish between what Putin is responsible for and what damage we have done to ourselves. It was American military strength that held the line against the Soviets and prevented a land war in Europe during the Cold War, but today there are fewer American forces in Europe than there are cops in the NYPD.9 Our military officers commanding forces stationed on the Continent are “forced to rely on weapons shipped back temporarily or hardware borrowed from allies in the expanding effort to deter the latest threats from Russia.”10
Putin can afford some uncertainty about the outcomes of his aggressive push into Europe and the Middle East. He does not need to predict exactly how every move will play out, because chaos and confusion are as much to his benefit and the West’s detriment as more predictable outcomes. It seems unlikely that when Putin began supporting Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria in 2011,11 he knew or hoped that the Syrian civil war would produce a large-scale migrant crisis in Europe. But it did, in no small part because of Assad’s brutality and the Russian military support that enabled it. The migrant crisis benefits Putin by fostering division among Western allies and showing Europe’s inability to deal with a major challenge to its political and economic systems. By precipitating the United Kingdom’s exit from the EU, the migrant crisis struck a blow to European unity that may even be fatal. Putin didn’t plan for it, but he didn’t have to—unintended consequences and unforeseen crises damage the status quo that he seeks to overturn. Similarly, the accidental downing of Malaysian Air flight 17 by Russian-backed rebels in Ukraine was unintentional but demonstrated the impotence of NATO, even after hundreds of European civilians were killed with Kremlin-supplied weapons. The pattern is clear: Putin acts, a series of chaotic and unpredictable events ensue, innocent civilians suffer—and the West dithers.
Because Putin is driving events, he has the opportunity to shape the narrative and the outcome. Western leaders continually fail to appreciate this simple logic. When Obama claimed that Putin’s intervention in Syria will “get them stuck in a quagmire,”12 the president was trying to draw parallels between Putin’s Syrian campaign and American misadventures in Vietnam and more recently in Iraq, but the comparison is fundamentally flawed. Vietnam became a quagmire for America because the Soviet Union and China gave the North Vietnamese the funding and military equipment they needed to drag out the conflict.13 In Iraq, Iranian aid to Shi’a militias14 and a global network of Islamic terror funding achieved the same effect. Quagmires don’t just happen; they arise as the result of concerted actions from multiple players. Syria will not become a quagmire for Russia just because Obama wishes it to happen. If Obama wants to see Putin bogged down in a Syrian commitment that imposes real costs on Russia, then the president must take substantive action to accomplish that goal. Unfortunately, the American opportunity to shape a favorable outcome in Syria has already passed. Putin got there first.
STANDING UP
It is no exaggeration to say that Putin’s ambitions pose a threat to the lives of tens of millions of innocent people in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. At least eight thousand dead Ukrainians,15 250,000 dead Syrians,16 and more than four million Syrian refugees17 are a testament to that. Add to that the diplomatic, military, and economic assistance that Putin provides to China, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, and Hezbollah, and the scope of his pernicious influence becomes clear.
There is no inherent reason why Russia should have to play the role of global villain. The dream of Russia and the West sharing a “common European home,” as Mikhail Gorbachev puts it,18 may seem far off, but it is not impossible. But if the West is to have any chance at halting and reversing Putin’s gains in Europe, the Middle East, and elsewhere, the first step is to redouble our commitment to the transatlantic partnership and to defend a political consensus that keeps America and Europe united behind a set of common values and strategic goals. Preserving and strengthening the alliance should be the paramount foreign policy goal for both the United States and Europe. Our partnership does not only provide far-reaching mutual benefits; it is also the foundation to confront and address global crises, from those in the Middle East to those in Asia. For all our faults, the countries of the transatlantic alliance remain the most powerful political, economic, cultural, and military force for good in the world—but only if we act accordingly.
The Russian Century
Putin’s Plan for the Future
First and foremost it is worth acknowledging that the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.
—VLADIMIR PUTIN 1
If I wanted, in two days I could have Russian troops not only in Kiev, but also in Riga, Vilnius, Tallinn, Warsaw and Bucharest.
—VLADIMIR PUTIN 2
Vladimir Putin is many things—KGB officer, master politician, multibillionaire, ruthless autocrat—but, above all, Vladimir Putin is a man with a plan. His plan is to unmake the world order that has stood since the end of the Cold War, especially in Europe, and replace it with one where Russia has the power, influence, and military strength to get its way on any issue. This means subjugating Russia’s immediate neighbors and integrating them into a Russia-centric political and economic system, neutralizing Europe and ending the transatlantic relationship with America, and seeding an endless series of global crises that drain the West’s ability and desire to influence global affairs while promoting the interests of Russia and its allies. In short, Putin plans to make the twenty-first century the Russian century.
To hear Putin tell it, Russia of course has no ambitions beyond its borders.3 But Putin’s vision for the future of the world is made plain by a consistent pattern of disruptive behavior, targeted use of force, and diplomatic intrigue that demonstrates his single-minded strategy to resurrect Russia as a regional hegemon. Putin envisions an Eastern Europe firmly under the control of Moscow and fully integrated into Russia’s economic, political, and cultural sphere of influence, alongside a Western Europe that is dependent on Russian energy, complacently isolationist, and most importantly anti-American. Putin’s determination to achieve this vision should not be underestimated.
Western leaders appear blind to Putin’s far-reaching plan. Barack Obama responded to Russia’s seizure of Crimea by warning Putin that he is “on the wrong side of history.”4 On the contrary, Putin is writing history. As author, commentator, and retired US Army lieutenant colonel Ralph Peters pithily puts it, “Obama talks, Putin kills.”5 Indeed, international wars and conflicts started by Putin have claimed the lives of about ten thousand people, both military and civilian.6 Putin shows no signs of letting up, as the war in Ukraine enters a bloody period of attrition and the Kremlin trains its sights on the Baltic States.7
It is vital to understand in depth exactly what Putin has planned for his neighbors, Europe, and the world. In this chapter, we will lay out what Putin’s master plan is, country by country, region by region. In each instance, we will explain what Putin has accomplished so far, what he is doing now, and what he appears to be planning next. Should Putin achieve his goals in just a few of these targeted countries and regions, the world will become a drastically different place, remade in Putin’s vision, and the consequences for global peace, security, and prosperity will be dire.
UKRAINE
Ukraine is the lynchpin in Putin’s strategy for Europe. The second-largest European country, with a population of over forty-five million, Ukraine is a valuable strategic prize positioned astride the major transit corridor for Russian oil and gas into Europe.8 But Putin’s interest in Ukraine is more than strategic—it is also cultural, historical, and ultimately imperial. Over seven million ethnic Russians live in Ukraine,9 primarily in the east and south, and Ukraine has been part of the Soviet Union or Russian Empire,