Putin's Master Plan. Douglas E. Schoen
that “in Putin’s mind, Ukraine is not a nation” but rather a part of Russia that is only independent due to an accident of history.11 In this belief, Putin’s attitude echoes that of the tsars. Putin occasionally refers to parts of Ukraine as “Novorossiya,” or “New Russia.”12 For Putin, control over Ukraine represents the resurgence and renaissance of Russian civilization, the righting of an historic wrong, and the vitality of Russian regional and global power. The only problem? Most Ukrainians have no interest in being part of Putin’s project.
Because most Ukrainians have no immediate desire to be governed as a puppet of Moscow, Putin has undertaken a concerted effort to ensure that Ukraine remains too politically and economically unstable for integration into the EU or NATO. In Putin’s thinking, if Ukraine is too volatile for the West to embrace, then Ukrainians will be left with only one option for their future: Russian domination.
It is difficult to overstate just how ruinous Putin’s master plan has been for the people of Ukraine. They have endured gas shutoffs in the dead of winter;13 repeated political and economic interference; and finally, a bloody, violent invasion of their country in an ongoing war that has claimed thousands of Ukrainian lives and destroyed the country’s economy, which is rapidly “turning Greek.”14 So long as the West does nothing to help Ukraine fend off Russian attacks, repair its economy, and clean up its corrupt institutions, all Putin has to do is wait for the nation’s political will to crumble under the pressures of war and growing poverty. If that happens, then Putin will likely succeed in making Ukraine into “Novorossiya.”
BELARUS
Although it gained independence at the same time as Ukraine, Belarus is Europe’s last tin-pot dictatorship, continuing a Soviet-style communist government today.15 Since 1994, Belarus has been ruled by Alexander Lukashenko, who once defended his autocratic, totalitarian regime by declaring that it is “better to be a dictator than gay.”16 Lukashenko has been a reliable Russian ally since the 1990s and serves as president of the largely aspirational Union State of Russia and Belarus, a supranational organization that, at least in theory, will eventually bring Belarus and Russia together in a commercial, military, and currency union.17 While the Union State project is far from complete, in 2014 Lukashenko became a founding father of the Eurasian Economic Union, a customs union and political integration project that now includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia, in addition to Belarus. It has been seen as a key component of Putin’s vision of creating an alternative alliance to rival the EU.
It’s easy to write off Belarus as a mismanaged backwater, economically unimportant and politically doomed. But that’s not what Putin sees. To Putin, keeping Belarus in the Russian sphere of influence and control is a preliminary but necessary step on the journey toward Russian regional hegemony. Like Ukraine, Belarus was part of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union, and its history is inextricably linked to that of Russia through centuries of shared linguistic, political, and religious heritage. For Putin, there is little reason for Belarus to chart its own course in Europe, and he certainly does not intend to give Belarussians that option. Putin’s plan for Belarus is to enforce ever-closer integration with and dependence on Russia. He may pretend that the political projects joining Russia and Belarus are equal partnerships, but it is clearly Russia that is in the driver’s seat, with Belarus along for the ride. Moscow will steadily exert more control over Belarussian affairs, likely through the Eurasian Economic Union, until Belarus becomes indistinguishable from a province of the Russian Empire—as it once was.
MOLDOVA
A tiny, impoverished country tucked between Romania and Ukraine, Moldova is nonetheless overflowing with complexities and beset by unsolved political riddles. Moldovans are linguistically and culturally close to Romanians, and much of Moldova was part of the Kingdom of Romania before World War II. But Moldova spent fifty years as part of the Soviet Union, and today about 30 percent of the country is ethnically Ukrainian, Russian, or another non-Moldovan minority.18 As a result, contemporary Moldovan politics is fraught with existential questions about whether the country’s future lies with the West, with Russia, or in reunification with Romania.
Putin has no intention of letting Moldovans make that choice themselves, and he holds a trump card: the unrecognized breakaway state of Transnistria, which violently seceded from the rest of Moldova in 1990 and continues to be propped up by more than a thousand Russian troops who have been stationed there for over twenty years.19 Moldova’s large Russian minority and the presence of Russian troops are eerily reminiscent of Ukraine and Crimea. Indeed, some have already warned that Moldova is “the next Ukraine” and that it is only a matter of time before Putin attempts to leverage his Transnistrian foothold and perhaps swallows a chunk of Moldova along with it.20 That day may indeed come, and sooner than many might imagine. In the meantime, Putin is spreading anti-European propaganda to ensure that Moldovans don’t grow too enamored of the West. Russian-language television, which is hugely popular in Moldova, encourages rumors that “if you join the E.U., everyone becomes gay,” or that European regulators “won’t let you keep animals around your houses.”21 Putin and his surrogates lavish attention on Moldova, while few Western leaders can be bothered to visit. The Kremlin’s intentions are clear: leverage existing divisions and anxieties within Moldova to derail any chance at European integration and eventually return the country to direct Russian control.
THE BALTIC STATES
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are quite possibly the greatest success stories to come out of the old Soviet Union. All three are NATO and EU members with vibrant democracies and market economies that have produced globally competitive companies such as Skype. Of course, Putin can’t stand it. He has made life difficult for the Baltic States in innumerable ways, including a massive 2007 cyberattack on Estonia,22 aggressive misinformation and propaganda campaigns in all three countries,23 and even the threat of nuclear war.24 In 2014, Russian agents slipped across the border and abducted Estonian security officer Eston Kohver,25 who was held in Moscow for more than a year before being released in an exchange for a Russian spy.26 Alarmingly, Russia has launched a “review” of the “legality” of the independence of the Baltic States after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union.27
The Baltic States have much to lose if Putin’s master plan comes to pass. After a century marked by war and totalitarian Soviet rule, Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians have finally carved out a decent life in their corner of the world. Only a few hours from St. Petersburg, democracy and free markets thrive in the region, citizens vote in European parliamentary elections, and tourists from around the EU travel freely and spend euros. The Baltic States are a thumb in the eye of Putin’s autocracy and a constant reminder to Russians across the border that Putin and his cronies are denying them the fruits of European integration. Indeed, the ethnic Russians living in the Baltics are better off than their compatriots in Russia proper, though many are bitter about being ruled by non-Russians. That is why Putin has turned his relentless “hybrid” warfare on the Baltics, and why these countries may yet prove to be the flashpoint that ignites a wider conflict between Russia and the West. It is one thing for Russia to bully Ukraine or exploit and manipulate the Belarussians and Moldovans. But the Baltic States are NATO members, and a Russian attack against them would trigger Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, obligating America and its Western European allies to assist.
THE CAUCASUS
The Caucasus region, where a towering mountain range divides Europe and Asia, has been a key success for Putin’s designs. Putin has utilized his full playbook to get what he wants in the Caucasus, from energy politics and interethnic rivalries to hybrid war and “frozen” conflicts—that is, struggles in which armed hostilities have ended but no peace agreements or political resolutions have been reached, meaning that the situation can enflame again at any time. The Caucasus is strategically vital to Russia, as it serves not only as a gateway to the Middle East but also as a transit route for abundant Central Asian oil and gas on its way to thirsty European markets.28 And Putin has more control there now than ever before. Wedged strategically between Turkey and Iran, Armenia is a member of