The Atlas of Climate Change. Professor Kirstin Dow
suffer first. Nearly one person in four in developing countries lives in poverty, on less than $1.25 per day. These people often depend heavily on agriculture, fishing, and animal husbandry, or work in the urban informal economy in precarious housing, to maintain their livelihoods and hopes for better lives. With 2°C warming, millions more people, many of them among the poorest, are likely to be exposed to annual coastal flooding. Changing precipitation patterns, either wetter or drier, along with altered temperature, will affect crop productivity and availability of food and water for livestock. Climate changes may also facilitate the movement of human, plant, and animal diseases into areas where they were previously little known, and where doctors, veterinarians, agriculture extension specialists, and money for treatments are all in short supply. Not all serious climate impacts will be the direct result of local changes. The interconnectedness of the global economy is a major mechanism for transferring impacts from one region to another and among people. For instance, favorable growing conditions worldwide and a bumper crop might translate into lower prices for all
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producers, while a crop loss for one area may create an economic windfall for another. The risks are pervasive, and also critical in the distribution and functioning of ecosystems. Many ecosystems are currently under tremendous pressure from land-use change and over-harvesting. Climate change is emerging as another unavoidable stress that will require action to support adaptation to multiple stresses. A broad front of adaptation is being pursued. Community-based adaptation focuses on livelihoods and local action. Sectoral actions look to promote climate resilience. National plans set policy frameworks, monitor outcomes and support finance. Social networking and information platforms are now common. Concerted urban adaptation programmes have gained momentum in the past five years. However, there are limits to adaptation. The ability of entire ecosystems to shift is uncertain, both because the rate of change is faster than typical ecological timescales, and because there is limited space available to move. The area immediately surrounding protected areas and coastal areas is often already in use and, in the far north and on mountain tops, there are no more options. Social, institutional, and economic barriers to restructuring infrastructure and economic wellbeing may well be insurmountable. Imagine trying to rebuild a city like Mumbai to cope with the plethora of climate risks it already experiences. And to do that for every coastal city. Climate change touches everything, and everyone The breadth of climate change is enormous. From the complexity of the science to the dimensions of impacts, from the structures of vulnerability to the transformations required in economic relationships. The lens of climate change reveals much about the interconnectedness of our world. The many dimensions of complexity and the difficulties they pose for generating solutions makes climate change what some academics have identified as a wicked environmental problem. These wicked traits are part of the way climate change both creates and requires new types of connections among us and future generations: • The solution depends on how the problem is framed – no single solution can solve the full breadth of climate change, so we have to break it down into parts that can be addressed. Witness the negotiations to appreciate the herculean task of creating pieces that can garner agreement. • Stakeholders have radically different frames for understanding the problem – whether formal regimes or cultural personalities, we describe the causes and solutions to climate change quite differently. Some see it as a problem of the global commons, others frame solutions through economic growth with new technology. • There is no central authority – the UNFCCC is a coordinating framework but cannot impose solutions. • The long term is valued more than expected – scenarios of policy effects and residual impacts are routinely run out to 2100, and some explore even longer horizons. • The problem is never solved definitively – actions we take today will not make the climate challenges disappear. We are already committed to impacts for at least another 100 years. • Those who are trying to solve the problem are also the cause – the imbalance between industrial emissions over the past century (largely North America and Europe) and the next century (with the BASIC countries taking a large share) plagues the negotiations; or more personally, wealthy consumers are also the political elite. • Time is running out – how long we have before the climate challenge becomes unsolvable is a critical question, and not just academic. Solutions will require “all hands on deck”. All levels of effort, from individuals to cities, to nations, corporations, and the international community are needed to meet this challenge. From individuals taking part in public demonstrations such as the 350 movement, to business councils offering toolkits for reductions, to strong national programs and active international negotiations, this engagement is taking place. An encouraging sign is the rising role of social entrepreneurs. New leadership is coming forward at all levels, personally committed to taking action. New initiatives, companies, and web services are launched every day. Action on climate change is a part of diverse global and local movements. It is grounded in environmental science and action, and in concerns for sustainability. It is often linked to other environmental issues, such as ozone depletion, or economic trends, such as the peak in oil production. Our experience of climate change is intimately exposed in the record of natural disasters. And disaster reduction has a humanitarian urgency as we seemingly lurch from crisis to crisis. We have much to learn. Learning pathways need to be constructed, scaling up success. Such pathways are journeys through the challenging landscape in three particular ways. First, is the action of each of us. There is much we can do in our own lives and within the remits of our own organizations. Promoting a positive psychology of action is essential. The second level of a journey often comes close upon our individual spheres of action. At some point we must involve others. This may be as simple as achieving a scale of action to warrant investment in a new technology –
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the market imperatives. Cooperation is also central to designing “fair” solutions, between industrialized nations and least developed countries, or in limiting luxuries such as very large cars while protecting the poor from high transport costs. Cooperation alone is not sufficient: the third level is transformation. This is the more difficult landscape, where new organizations and institutions are required. It may involve replacing entrenched gatekeepers who are preserving their narrow self-interests, while seemingly supporting action on climate change. The ultimate solutions to the challenges ahead require action far beyond adding a bit of sustainability to what we are doing today. The transformative pathways begin in concern for environment (the historic locus of climate change), disaster risk reduction (mostly to cope with climate impacts, but increasingly concerned about planetary futures), and economic investment (from development horizons to technological innovation). The goals of sustainable environments, saving lives and livelihoods, and ending poverty are guiding lights. We believe solutions to the challenges and opportunities of climate change must reflect each of these goals. We encourage you to get involved, in your own lives, in your own, even virtual, communities, and in collective endeavors. Kirstin Dow South Carolina, USA Tom Downing Oxford, UK June 2011
Acknowledgements
Many people have shaped our efforts, here in the Atlas and beyond. We would like to pay homage to champions who have passed away since the first edition of the Atlas. Steve Schneider led the world in many scientific ways and as a champion of informed policy. Bo Lim worked tirelessly to do adaptation, from the first Adaptation Policy Framework to projects around the world. Gilbert White inspired many in pioneering work on sustainability and disasters. We miss them in our lives and in the stage of climate policy. Scientists, interns and assistants around the world have helped on various topics, and this edition builds on the previous versions. Particular contributions to the third edition are noted from Andrew Alberico, Lisa Alexander, Sally Brown, Sujatha Byravan, Greg Carbone, Mark de Blois, Lesley Downing, Kristie Ebi, Mo Hamza, Tomotaka Iba, Sari Kovats, David Lobell, Elizabeth Marino, Karly Miller, Robert Nicholls, David Nimitz Steve Pye, Chella Rajan, David Stainforth, Nassos Vafeidis, Paul Watkiss. And many others who gave us advice, answered emails or made lasting contributions to the data, science and assessments. Many of the websites that provide data have been vastly improved over the past five years. Those behind the scenes of making data reliable and available are often unsung heroes of climate change; they are deeply appreciated. The team at Myriad Editions brought the data to life: Jannet King, Candida Lacey, Isabelle Lewis, Corinne Pearlman. Jonathan Sinclair Wilson, formerly at Earthscan, continues to provide a sharp insight into public understanding of science. A special thanks to Wangari Maathai and Philippe Cousteau. Their forewords speak for themselves;