The COVID-19 Catastrophe. Richard Horton

The COVID-19 Catastrophe - Richard Horton


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      ISBN-13: 978-1-5095-4911-5

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      Lars Svendsen, The Philosophy of Fear (2008)

      Hindsight or history? Presidents and prime ministers worldwide have argued consistently that no one could possibly have foreseen the brutal human consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. ‘Unprecedented’ was, and remains, one of the most commonly used words describing this extraordinary outbreak of contagion. Those who criticise the slow early responses of many Western governments, or the complacency over preparations for a second or third wave of coronavirus, or the lack of adequate support for those hit by the ensuing economic crisis, are not surprisingly censured for their apparently self-righteous, retrospective wisdom. President Trump led the way with what one might call ‘the exceptionalist defence’. In March 2020, he said, ‘there’s never been anything like this in history. There’s never been … nobody’s ever seen anything like this.’

      It’s tempting to sympathise with this point of view. The tragedy that began in December 2019, and continues still despite the allure of a vaccine, was surely unprecedented in many ways. But comforting though such a conclusion might be, it is, unfortunately, not true. And the reason is history.

      When the first cases of plague were reported early in 1665, London’s authorities endeavoured to conceal the outbreak, echoing evidence that police officials in Wuhan, China, sought to suppress what they disingenuously called ‘rumours’ of a new SARS-like disease. When plague was finally accepted as a reality in London, the government was unprepared. And the public was understandably terrified as the infection took hold with forceful menace. Mental health, for example, suffered badly – a kind of ‘melancholy madness’ descended on England’s capital.

      There was fake news in the era of plague too. ‘Deceivers’ proposed plague to be the judgement of an angry God. Or, insisted others, it was caused by a blazing star or comet. ‘One mischief always introduces another,’ wrote Defoe. The plague enabled fortune-tellers, wizards and astrologers to flourish. Quackery prospered – an array of pills, preservatives, cordials and antidotes were peddled. We should not, perhaps, have been surprised by the furore over President Trump’s unevidenced advocacy of disinfectant, irradiating light and hydroxychloroquine as remedies for COVID-19.

      We should not be surprised that the behaviour of the public was similar across the centuries. During the first wave of lockdown in 2020, people willingly, even enthusiastically, followed the instruction to stay home. They learned to enjoy the opportunity to take up new activities. The same was true in 1665. Defoe mentions baking bread and brewing beer. Public compliance during the first wave of the 2020 pandemic successfully suppressed the outbreak. But, once it was controlled, people desperately wished to return to some level of normal life. Governments wanted to reignite their economies. Perhaps everyone was exhausted and fatigued by the ‘anthropause’ – this temporary cessation of humanity. The result? Many countries let their guard down and the virus bounced back – a second wave. In 1665, a similar complacency took hold. By the end of September the plague’s fury was beginning to relent. People came out of their homes, shops opened, businesses resumed. The outcome of this ‘imprudent rash conduct’ was a second wave of plague that ‘cost a great many’ lives.


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