A Comparative View of the Mortality of the Human Species, at All Ages. Black William
22; Berlin, 1 of 26. This is nearly Dr. Price’s calculation; but Halley and Susmilch compute only 1 of 22 to 29 to die annually in cities. In smaller cities and towns, such as Norwich and Northampton, the general average of deaths is 1 of 24 to 26; but in several provinces and healthy country villages, 1 of 32 and 33, up to 45, 50, and even 60, is the annual drain: 1 of 43 to 50 was the average in upwards of a thousand country parishes on the continent; and recorded in Susmilch. Within the above short intervals of time, there will have died in the respective cities and country places enumerated, a number equal to the whole inhabitants. But the annual decrease of the oppressed Negroes, in the West India islands, is estimated at 1 of 7.
The ancient Egyptians allotted 3 generations to a century, which is bordering upon the truth; at this day, 1 of 32 and 33 up to 35, is near the measure of a generation, and to the general decrease of a community throughout Europe, comprehending all the inhabitants in city, village, and country: that is, mankind share amongst them from about 32 and 33 to 35 years each of existence: and within this fugitive interval of time, a number equal to all the present inhabitants of this island, or of the whole earth, will be exterminated. If we extend this estimate to the whole human race, eight hundred million will die in 33 years; about twenty-eight million annually; seventy or eighty thousand daily; about three thousand hourly; and from fifty to sixty every minute. It is perhaps superfluous to add, that, in the same intervals, an equal or superior number will be born.
According to De Moivre and Dr. Price, “the probabilities or expectation of life, decrease as we advance from childhood to old age, in an arithmetical progression; that is, in such a manner that the difference is always the same between the number of persons living at the beginning of any one year, and the number living at the beginning of the following year.” Or, in other words, less enveloped in mathematical obscurity, out of any specified number, an hundred or a thousand, the same proportion will continue to die every year until near 80 years of age and upwards: consequently, the probabilities of life are constantly decreasing; because notwithstanding the progressive annual drain from the capitals, yet the deaths continue throughout equal. But this proportion is certainly erroneous in the first stages of life, and until about 10. View the above proposition in another light.
From any given number there will be an equal drain annually, until what De Moivre terms the complement or maximum, or utmost probable extreme of life, which he fixes at 86, all are dead. The probability, therefore, that the whole of any limited number whatsoever, or age, will all be exterminated is the number of years between 86 and the year such a number are all alive. Of 56 persons alive at 30, they should all be dead in 56 years, because 56 added to 30 amounts to 86, the maximum: of 46 persons alive at 40 years of age, they should all be dead in 46 years: and 36 persons alive at 50 years of age, should be dead in 36 years; for 50 and 36 complete the maximum. Again, the expectation of any single life is only half the maximum or complement, or half the space between that age and the ultimate term of existence: but here we must repeat the former exception, and draw the line after 10 years of age. The expectation of two equal joint lives, according to De Moivre, is one third of the complement of life. Example: two lives, aged 40, have an even chance or probable prospect of continuing together in exigence only 15 years; which is the third of the complement, reckoning from 40 to 86: the expectation of the survivor is also 15. Or, suppose a lot of marriages of persons at 40 years of age, they will, on an average, continue together 15½ years; and the survivors the same time after. This expectation, therefore, is the probable duration of each marriage, and the share of each person’s life. But it may be proper to add, that the duration of marriages, and the value of single and joint lives, will, on a promiscuous calculation, be different from the registers of annuitant and insurance offices; because they are scrupulously vigilant to exclude all diseased and unhealthy persons from becoming members.
The following Chart and Tables, present a distinct prospect of the fates clipping the mortal thread, from birth to old age, in city and country. But we are not to suppose that in every instance there will be annually a regular arithmetical diminution, as marked in the different tables: some years will be more fatal than others; and we are to form estimates from an average of several years. The first column points out the age, the second the number living at that age, the third the number who die during the year; and so on to the end of the table. But observe, that the number of infants, at the beginning of the second column, are supposed to be all born together on the first day of that year; and this rule applies throughout all the remaining ages. The two short tables of 15 and 30 years mortality in London, demonstrate the gradations at longer intervals than a single year. From these different tables may be estimated the annual waste, out of any specified number, at all ages, the ultimate prospects of existence, and the odds or probability of a person in health surviving a stated number of years.
A GENERAL CHART, with different Tables, Exhibiting the Gradations of Mortality in City and Country.
Shewing the Probability of the Duration of Life in London, deduced by Mr. Simpson, from Observations on the Bills of Mortality in London for Ten Years, from 1728 to 1737. The total Number of Inhabitants, probably, about 650,000 in Winter. One Half born died under Three Years of Age.
Конец ознакомительного фрагмента.
Текст предоставлен ООО «ЛитРес».
Прочитайте эту книгу целиком, купив полную легальную версию на ЛитРес.
Безопасно оплатить книгу можно банковской картой Visa, MasterCard, Maestro, со счета мобильного телефона, с платежного терминала, в салоне МТС или Связной, через PayPal, WebMoney, Яндекс.Деньги, QIWI Кошелек, бонусными картами или другим удобным Вам способом.