Economics of G20. Группа авторов
in a two-good model, a reduction in import duties raises both exports and imports.
8As the performance of EAP shows, there is no particular number at which the share of XGS in GDP should remain. If exports grow rapidly, then income and employment in the export sector grow and this has a spillover effect on the rest of the economy. What is important is the change in the share and not the level of the share. The effect of exports can again perhaps be illustrated by the experience of India. India had periodic balance of payments problems with crises in 1966–1967, 1979–1980 and 1990–1991 because of poor export performance — the share of XGS in GDP was constant at about 5%. These crises disrupted the economic situation thereby lowering the growth rate. This has changed since the liberalisation started in 1991.
9A number of large-aid recipients are likely to graduate from IDA in the next few years. If the funds with IDA do not show a proportionate decrease, then more soft aid might be available for countries in SSA.
10But this hope seems to be belied as growth rates in LAC and SSA remain low.
11Calculated by the authors from data available in the World Bank Data Bank on Development Indicators.
12The growth projections for the period 2011–2014 of the World Bank (2012) have LAC growing at 4% a year and SSA at 5% a year.
13This of course implies that for most groups performance in exports of goods is better than that for XGS. But it also implies that exports of manufactures themselves by the manufacturing exporting countries are very poor.
Chapter 3
Latin America’s Economic Performance: What Ails It?
Manmohan Agarwal
Centre for Development Studies Thiruvananthapuram, India [email protected]
Amrita Brahmo
Research and Information Systems for Developing Countries, New Delhi, India [email protected]
Abstract
This chapter examines the performance of countries in Latin America over the past half a century against the backdrop of the behaviour of the world economy and particularly that of developing countries. It studies whether the region is catching up with the high-income countries. It also examines whether there is convergence among Latin American countries. One of features of the performance of the countries in the region is the increasing share of exports in GDP. The chapter studies what this has implied for the relationship of growth in Latin America with that in the other regions or countries. It finally tries to analyse the implications of the current situation in Latin America for the achievement of sustained stable and balanced growth of the world economy, a major objective of the G20.
Introduction
Latin America’s Comparative Economic Performance
Before 1982 only South Asia (SA) and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) did worse than the world average, namely worse than the high-income countries so that they were falling further behind, whereas the other regions were catching up (Table 1). The picture has changed significantly since the debt crisis as only Asia, both East Asia and Pacific (EAP) and SA, have outperformed the world, whereas all the other regions have grown slower than the world. So, most regions have not been converging to the high-income countries. But Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries have performed worse than the high-income countries in every period except 2001–2007. Therefore, the region has been falling behind.
The divergence was particularly large in the period 1983–2000 as the average growth rate in these three regions was very low, ranging from an average of −0.9% in SSA to 0.6% in LAC and Middle East and North Africa (MNA). However, since the turn of the century, all the developing countries have grown faster than the high-income countries. This was mainly because of the improved performance before the financial crisis of 2008. Since the crisis, the economic performance of LAC and MNA has slumped substantially. Only Asia is still performing better than the world average.
The economic performance of the countries in LAC has been very anaemic since the onset of the debt crisis in 1982, being better than only SSA. However, if we further sub-divide the period after the onset of the debt crisis, the poor economic performance of LAC becomes even clearer. Since the turn of the century, LAC has grown the slowest of all the regions.
Table 1. Growth of Per Capita GDP (Annual Average %)
Note: EAP is East Asia and Pacific, LAC is Latin America and the Caribbean, MNA is Middle East and North Africa, SA is South Asia and SSA is Sub-Saharan Africa. These regions are as defined by the World Bank.
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators.
Table 2. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (% of GDP)
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators.
Growth is significantly influenced by investment, so we next examine the behaviour of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) in the different regions. Though investment ratios did fall in LAC because of the debt crisis and its aftermath from the early 1980s to the beginning of this century, they have since risen and have continued to rise even after the onset of the financial crisis in 2008 (Table 2).
Another constraint to growth that operates very often is the state of the current account deficit (CAD). Generally, countries with a large deficit tend to grow slowly. So, we analyse the state of CAD in these regions. The only region that has shown a consistently large CAD is SA (Table 3).
Since the onset of the debt crisis, the current account balance (CAB) has been slightly positive or slightly negative for two of the slowest growing regions, LAC and SSA. It seems that they could have run more expansionary monetary and fiscal policies without fear of running unmanageably larger deficits.1
Good export performance can prevent the possibility of large CADs. The share of exports of goods and services in GDP has increased considerably over the past 50 years in all the regions. The increase in the share in LAC, while not as spectacular as in EAP or even SA, is much larger than that in MNA or SSA (Table 4).
Table 3. External Balance (% of GDP)
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators.
Table 4. Exports of Goods and Services (% of GDP)
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators.
This performance would not support the hypothesis that poor export performance led to fears of large unsustainable CADs.2 Till the crisis reserves were increasing rapidly, share of reserves to GDP ratio was rising (Table 5).3 After the crisis, this ratio started falling. More recently, it has been rising, but in many instances, it was still lower than that in 2007. The share of reserves may not be large enough to encourage governments to follow more expansionary policies.