Sound Military Decision. Naval War College
a grasp of the salient features of the situation, (2) a recognition of the incentive, and (3) an appreciation of the effect desired.
The "appropriate" effect desired will necessarily be suitable to the further effects (page 19) which are inherent in the situation. An effect to be attained is accepted as appropriate when, after due examination, its relationship with the further effects involved, in all their pertinent implications, has been found to be in accordance with the dictates of sound judgment.
The establishment of the basis for the solution of the problem will also require an understanding of the resources involved, as influenced by the conditions obtaining, for the maintenance of the existing situation or for the creation of a new one.
The resources available, as influenced by the conditions obtaining, are correctly considered on a relative basis as compared to those of any persons who may oppose the effort.
With the basis for the solution of the problem established in this manner, the actual solution involves the consideration of one or more plans, i.e., proposed methods of procedure, and the selection of the one considered to be the best.
The person concerned, taking cognizance of the present condition, i.e., the existing situation, first considers whether this situation, if maintained, will be suitable to the appropriate effect desired. Then, unless satisfied that he desires no change, he creates one or more images of future conditions, i.e., mental pictures of new situations, which will also be suitable to this end. The maintenance of the existing situation, or the creation of a new one, will in each case involve a plan.
Necessarily, each such plan includes provision for (1) an effect to be produced by the person solving the problem, which effect will be the maintenance of the existing situation or the creation of a new one as visualized by himself, and (2) the action required to produce this effect and so to attain the appropriate effect desired, already established as an essential part of the basis of his problem.
After systematic examination of such plans, those retained for further consideration can be subjected to a comparison as to their relative merits.
The best plan, selected accordingly, is then incorporated into a decision as to the procedure to be adopted.
This decision is then available as a general plan, or may be developed into one, to serve as a basis if necessary for a more detailed plan for the attainment of the appropriate effect desired.
Later development, herein, of the details of this procedure will disclose many ramifications. The treatment, so far, points to the fact that the best method of reaching sound decision is through systematic thought which employs logic, i.e., sound reasoning, as its machinery.
The Necessity for Logical Thought. Logical thought separates the rational from the irrational. Its use avoids the wastefulness of the trial-and-error method. By its insistent employment, dormant powers of reasoning are awakened, and the danger that attends instinctive, spontaneous, impulsive, or emotional acceptance of conclusions (page 9) is lessened. The evil effects of an inclination to dodge the issue or of a disinclination to face the facts are thus also avoided. The fallacy of employing the reasoning power to justify conclusions already reached, whether on the basis of tradition or habit, or because of the bias or bent of a school of thought, or because of the tendency of human nature to accept plausible suggestions, is also made apparent. Through the deliberate practice of testing and weighing, the faculty of arriving swiftly at accurate decisions is strengthened and is brought more quickly into play when time is a matter of immediate concern.
Principles in their Relation to Logical Thought. Because of the necessity for the exercise of judgment (page 3) in the systematic arrangement of thought, the relationship between cause and effect, as expressed in principles, is of great assistance in applying logical processes to the problems of human life.
A principle establishes a correct relation between cause and effect. The word, derived from the Latin "principium", meaning a foundation, beginning, source, origin, or cause, has, because a cause implies an effect, acquired in correct usage the significance of a true statement of relationship between cause and effect. A principle, so formulated, is a natural law (page 19) because it expresses a fact of nature; it thus becomes a reliable rule of action and may be confidently adopted as a governing law of conduct. If basic in its field, such a rule or law becomes a general or fundamental principle with respect thereto; each such basic truth may be the basis for the determination of many corollary or subordinate principles dealing with the details of the particular subject.
The formulation of a principle, therefore, requires the determination of the causes that generate a particular effect (or effects), and the accurate expression of the resultant relationship. Such expression frequently takes the form of a proportion. In the mathematical sciences the proportion may represent a precise balance; its statement may be an exact formula. In other sciences, a definite relationship between cause and effect has likewise been established in many cases, though not always with mathematical precision. Comparable exactitude has not been attained, in some cases, because the field has not been so thoroughly explored; moreover, greater difficulty is experienced, at times, in isolating the cause, or causes. The balance represented by such equations, therefore, is based on quantities whose weights vary within wide ranges. (See page 3.)
Human conduct does not lend itself to analysis as readily as do mathematical and physical phenomena. The advance in the psychological and sociological sciences is not so marked as in the physical, and the actions and reactions of the mind of man have not yet proved to be susceptible of reduction to exact formulae. Nevertheless, man, in his intuitive search for valid guides for his own action, has been able, with the advance of time, greatly to improve his own lot through the medium of the scientific approach to human problems.
The insistent search of the human mind for reliable rules of action is a recognized natural phenomenon. As understood on the basis of expert investigation of the subject, this trait results from the recognition, conscious or otherwise, by countless generations of mankind, of the relationships between cause and effect as evidenced in the workings of the laws of nature (page 22). A logical outcome, therefore, of experience, this instinctive demand of the mind constitutes a force which defies opposition. Properly utilized, this force affords a powerful and natural aid in the solution of problems.
Inasmuch as a valid rule, or principle, is of great assistance in arriving at sound decisions and in formulating effective plans (see page 22), this demand for reliable guides is logical, as well as natural. In any event, the demand for such guidance, if not met by provision for reliable rules of action, may result in the adoption of faulty rules, with frequent unfortunate consequences.
The formulation of principles, already referred to in this connection, constitutes in itself a recognized problem (see also page 27) of great difficulty; for it is a human failing to avoid the mental effort involved in thinking through such a problem, and to rely on rules whose plausibility and seeming simplicity are frequently a measure of their incompleteness and inaccuracy.
Since the earliest days, man has attempted to formulate the relationships between causes and effects without, however, always possessing the specific knowledge essential to accuracy. Pithy statements have always had great appeal to man, as evidenced by the existence of proverbs, maxims, and adages preserved from times of great antiquity. Frequently, however, such statements are not expressive of the truth. Sometimes, again, they state facts, without, nevertheless, expressing the whole truth.
Only when the relationship between cause and effect has been demonstrated to be always true can the trained, inquiring mind receive its statement as a valid guide,