Psychoeconomics: globalization, markets, crisis. Николай Игнатьевич Конюхов
– Consumer Price Index, an index of consumer prices, also an index of inflation – a type of index of prices designed to gauge the average level of prices for certain goods and services (a consumer basket) for a certain period in the economy. The consumer price index determines the change in the level of various prices for a “fixed basket” of goods and services. Prices of imported goods and services are included in the calculation of the index. The consumer price index is the main indicator of a country’s level of inflation.
We first turn our attention to the change in the CPI. To interpret it, we need to refer to the conclusion we reached previously – hundreds of years ago, a few years of the sun heating up people’s psyches were required for hysteroid reactions to begin to actively appear in social processes. Currently the effect of the sun on people has become more indirect. This is due to a number of causes: the fact that the sun shone more intensively in the previous cycle, and that we became more emotional in this cycle of development, and that people more often began to work at professional types of activity that were more related to the development of the mechanism for opening and closing the circuits of nervous impulses. It was also related to other factors. We can similarly notice that the effect of the sun on people will also depend on the leading psychotype of the elite, of the population. In a period when resonators are dominant, the effect of the sun on their psyches will be smaller, since the mentality of such people is less emotionalized.
In a period when the values and culture of the hysteroids dominate, the influence of the sun will be more direct and stronger.
Peak prices of the consumer basket occurred in 1812, 1862, 1917, and 1979. This occurred worldwide. But we know that the development of the world economy in these years was by and large the development of the US economy.
So, there are peak values of the consumer basket, there are peaks of solar activity, and there are transient increases in the Wolf number of sunspots. We summarize these data in the table.
For a base we will take the well-known tables of solar activity (see L.V. Konstantinovskaya. http://www.astronom2000.info).
The rank correlation coefficient between the amount of change in CPI at maxima and the number of Wolf spots equals 0.56. The corresponding coefficient of determination is 0.31. This suggests that the increase in the price of the consumer basket at points of change in the trendline of its value before the beginning of a price decline of less than a third is statistically related to, or simply coincides with the activity of the sun.
The range correlation coefficient between the amount of change in the CPI at minima and the number of Wolf sunspots is -0.43. That is, a flex point in the trendline of change in the CPI at the minimum occurred more often at the same time as the maximum solar activity. But this correlation is not as close as with maximum values of the CPI. The value of the determination coefficient confirms that solar activity is only 20% correlated to, or statistically coincides with the fall in the cost of the consumer basket at turning points.
However, in both the first and second cases, this is not a random relationship.
With a random correlation of these factors at minima of values of the CPI, the average number of sunspots was the mean over all these years. This number varies depending on the century and decade. In the nineteenth century, on average there were 42 Wolf spots per year, while in the twentieth century, there were 61. For two centuries on average this was a little more than 50 spots. But the average time that peaks of solar activity preceded the peak values of the CPI index over the two centuries was around 5.5 years.
Of course, here there is much that is misleading. All these calculations have been done technically, as though they were beyond qualitative analysis. Thus, in 1908, the peak CPI value was right behind that of 1907, when the number of sun spots was 62. But for 1905 we calculated a maximum of 63.5 sunspots. However this “deception” is not in support of evidence of a connection of solar activity with psychoeconomic processes on earth, but conversely. This is a purely statistical calculation. Nevertheless, it is clear that in some cases the connection between the sun’s magnetic radiation and people’s behavior on earth can begin, and actually does begin, before the onset of a peak of solar activity, and is influenced by the ascending trendline of prior years. But even with this calculation it is possible to confirm that the most important peaks of CPI values are related to peaks of solar activity. Minimal values have a weaker connection. Only in the twentieth century did the cycles of minimal CPI values start to approximate cycles of solar activity.
Maximum CPI values are directly related to peaks of solar activity. And this holds even if you calculate it over two centuries.
If we then begin calculations from the point of active development of capitalism, throwing out the values prior to 1860, then this relationship is very immediate and direct. Is this randomness or not? This is regular.
The highest inflation is seen more often during a period of dominance by the third generation elite. Mass protests begin at peaks of growth of the price of consumer baskets. Protests are emotionalized and usually driven by hysteroids. In 1812 were the wars in Europe, the beginning of the Russian Patriotic War. 1862 saw protest demonstrations worldwide, the beginning of the US Civil War, processes related to the change in serfdom in Russia etc. In 1917 there was revolution in Russia, and the beginning of mass revolutionary demonstrations worldwide. In 1981 there was a buildup of discontent among the people, and in response, the beginning of active debt financing of the middle class households in the US, the beginning of the policy of Reaganomics. While in 1980 the GDP in the US contracted by 0.3%, in 1988 it had risen by more than 4%. The effect of the policy of Reaganomics is clear. But this policy gradually led to propping up those households that were not sufficiently viable, that is, unavoidably the post-postresonators made a gradual appearance in the economy. The very continuation of this process alongside the appearance of the third-generation elite quickly brought the US and other countries in the same cycle of development to the current psychoeconomic crisis.
Hysteroids increase their activity at a peak of the sun’s activity, the greatest emotional reactions of this psychotype appear when social discontent has come to a head. Often this happens alongside growth in the value of the consumer basket.
An increasing span of time often occurs between the highest peaks in the CPI. This occurs at 50 – 55 – 64 years, with an average is 56 years. But why not 72 years? 72 years is the period of the existence of the three successive generations of political elites in countries with endogenous causes of development. The cost of the consumer basket is determined, first of all, by the economically active population. Post-postresonators in the economy often just go under (if they don’t have political cover). Resonators then come into their place, and the consumer basket begins to drop in value. But post-postresonators more and more often find their support among the elite, especially the third generation.
With each century or decade, the decline of the post-postresonators tends to occur later and later. This is due to many factors, but one has not been mentioned: the growth of the activity of the social motivators, the policy of the government, whereby the more the government supports households, the longer the post-postresonators avoid ruin. Through the policy of Reaganomics since 1981 the US government began to actively support households by means of cheaper and cheaper credit.
Solar activity exerts a more direct effect on people of higher emotionality, the hysteroids. This is precisely the initial point of influence of cyclicity of solar activity on the progression and cyclicity of change in the basic psychotypes on Earth. At the same time, the increase in labor productivity is driven by the resonators, whose psychotype is opposite that of hysteroids. These are people who usually have paranoiac traits. The cycle of economic development under their influence is less related to the activity of the sun than is the cycle of development under the influence of the activity of hysteroids.
This approach by and large explains why the Kondatriev cycle has become a little skewed, it now differes from what it was in past centuries. And the more the US inflates the assets of the household and support their market, the more the period of activity of the post-postresonators