Psychoeconomics: globalization, markets, crisis. Николай Игнатьевич Конюхов
affects not only the US, but also other countries in the same development cycle.
In regard to what has been said, it is clear why the peak of CPI is antiphasic to the values of the material asset indexes. Hysteroids begin to increase their influence along with the growth of the consumer basket. They impart tone to economic processes. But hysteroids are more oriented by their type of intellect toward non-material values. At one point, Karl Marx called them “aesthetes” (see Das Kapital, v. 1, chapter 3). This point in the work of Marx is of such interest that it is worth quoting his thinking:
“In order that gold may be held as money, and made to form a hoard, it must be prevented from circulating, or from transforming itself into a means of enjoyment. The hoarder, therefore, makes a sacrifice of the lusts of the flesh to his gold fetish. He acts in earnest up to the Gospel of abstention. On the other hand, he can withdraw from circulation no more than what he has thrown into it in the shape of commodities. The more he produces, the more he is able to sell. Hard work, saving and avarice, are, therefore, his three cardinal virtues, and to sell much and buy little the sum of his political economy.
“To increase a possibly greater number of sellers of all commodities, or to reduce a possibly larger number of consumers – such is the main question which all measures of the political economy come down to.” (Verri.).
“By the side of the gross form of a hoard, we find also its æsthetic form in the possession of gold and silver articles. This grows with the wealth of civil society. ‘Soyons riches ou paraissons riches.’ (Diderot). In this way there is created, on the one hand, a constantly extending market for gold and silver, unconnected with their functions as money, and, on the other hand, a latent source of supply, to which recourse is had principally in times of crisis and social disturbance.”
In essence, Karl Marx reaches a conclusion about the oscillating changes of economic values – from material to esthetic, psychological, depending on the cycle of economic development. Let us now turn our attention to the fact that we are speaking here of the rise of the psychological function of wealth in proportion to its growth. We are also speaking of the psychological peculiarities of people who are occupied with accumulation and so forth.
Values oscillate between the real and fictitious economy. The price of shares is more suited for the imagination of hysteroids, for the fantasy of auditory types. For kinesthetic types, or domain experts, the variation in the prices of gold, oil or raw materials is more familiar… With the change in the balance of psychotypes of the economically active population, or more precisely with the change in the fundamental metaprograms of these psychotypes, the monetary balance of these assets also changes. Naturally this change is not total, but occurs at the level of cumulative causes: one metaprogram has barely changed in one market participant, in another, in a third etc. And that’s how the market unfolds… We must bear in mind that in each person there are both a kinetic and audial beginning. Most commonly this is a transformation, a correction in the psychotype of specific individuals. The first one changes a little, then the second does, then the third… the accumulation of these changes constitutes another movement in the market… Naturally, indoctrination, mimesis, conformity and other processes are active here that regulate the transmission of information from one person to another, and regulate socio-psychological processes. These swings have become cyclical, while thanks to globalization they penetrate the economically active population, the economy of the majority of countries.
But where does the opinion of economists themselves come down on this topic? By analyzing the appended chart of cyclical interrelationship of the price of material and immaterial assets, they have reached the conclusion that between stock prices and the price of non-monetary assets there are 16 annual cycles. This is so whether we count from the minima or maxima. But is it accidental that in our case for each psychotype, two maximum peaks of solar radiation occur and that three times 16 exactly gives 48? This is the minimal value of the Kondratiev cycle, and the two psychotypes that provide intensive development are resonators and postresonators.
When analyzing Kondratiev cycles and their dependence on solar activity earlier, we concluded that for each psychotype of the economically active population two peaks of solar activity elapse. At one peak this psychotype comes to dominate the economy, and at the other occurs the preparation for his departure from making primary economic decisions. At a third peak, the next psychotype comes into dominance. And so forth. We should not forget that this applies to countries with endogenous developmental factors.
More time is needed for “warming up” resonators than for the emotional “jerking up” of the post-postresonators. Solar activity itself changes from century to century. Historical conditions of development change. The most important of these is the development of workforce productivity, the intensification of the social division of labor. Hence the variability of cycles is a regular psychoeconomic phenomenon.
When power belongs to the hysteroids, in countries that were centers of economic development, that is, those that developed under the influence of more endogenous factors than exogenous, social stratification grows, and an elite with hysteroid traces exploit the people in various ways. This may include raising prices of the consumer basket.
The US was already such a country in the nineteenth century. In previously enumerated accounts, 1868 was a base year for resonators coming to power in the US, for their most vigorous activity (1870 saw a peak in the number of Wolf sunspots, 139!). These were the first elections after then end of the Civil War. Twenty-four years pass for the years of resonator dominance. Starting in 1868, the price of the world consumer basket gradually fell, by almost 10%. The minimal value of the CPI occurred in 1878. Given the dominance of the resonators, the next peak of solar activity in 1883 was not so tightly bound to the rise of the cost of the consumer basket. Nevertheless the trend for a decline in the value of the CPI was disturbed. The resonators had already begun to lose their power, their influence on the society and economy.
The peak of solar activity that is connected with the ascension to power of the postresonators occurred in 1892-1895. In 1893, there were 85 Wolf sunspots. In the period of dominance of the postresonators, the price of the consumer basket swings slowly toward growth. In 1905, the price of the consumer basket again races ahead (a peak of solar activity), but then again falls. The years 1905-1907 were peaks of solar activity that removed the postresonators from the historical arena. But with the arrival of the time and culture of the post-postresonators, the price of the consumer basket grew vigorously. In their period, there occur the tempestuous Twenties of the twentieth century in the USA, the bulging of the financial market, and so on. That is, everything that led to the crisis of 1928-1939. 1917 brought increased solar activity (104 spots) to the benefit of the postpostresonators. But in 1928-1930, with a new cycle of solar activity (in 1928 there were 77 spots), “no” was said to a culture of psychoeconomic behavior of people with increased emotionality.
The cycles oscillate regularly with the change not only of centuries, but also of millennia. See the Wikipedia data on the cycles of solar activity over the course of millennia.
Cycles of solar activity lasted in the twentieth century a little more than 11 years, but cycles do occur that last from 9 to 14 years. The last cycle, which ended in 2008, lasted 12.5 years
(see: http://www.gao.spb.ru/russian/cosm/astr/index.html).
The form of the cycle is not consistent. In the opinion of the Swiss astronomer Max Waldmeier, the transition from a minimum to maximum of solar activity occurs faster when there is a greater maximum number of sunspots recorded in the cycle.
Economic development in the world, the cycles of economic changes, increasingly aligns with the cycles of solar activity. For the 210 years, as reflected in the charts presented, the consumer basket in the world attained 9 maximum peaks and 9 minimal CPI values. On average, the time from maximum to minimum was 23.5 years.
There were 19 cycles of solar radiation over this time, which is about 11-12 years between peaks of solar activity. To wit, for each turning point in the curve of the price of the consumer basket, there were two peak values of solar radiation.
The influence of solar activity on people’s decisions