Psychoeconomics: globalization, markets, crisis. Николай Игнатьевич Конюхов
of the mechanism of opening and closing the circuits of conditioned reflexes. Conditioned reflexes, which are responsible for actions, will change more slowly than those that are responsible for making decisions, such as whether to buy more gold or valuable paper, shares of stock. Therefore, decisions about the overbought of one asset in relation to another are made more quickly, more vigorously, than about whether to install new technology and grow workforce productivity… Emerging social changes, such as war and so on, also affect the cycles. This likewise somewhat transforms the effect of solar activity on people’s economic behavior.
Differences in the decision-making of kinesthetic (and the psychotypes corresponding to them) and auditory types remain fundamental. The kinesthetic types more respect things that are weighty, substantial, that can be felt, touched, that you can buy… The auditory types more esteem that which can be beautifully described to others. They especially come to life when it is difficult to find criteria for cross-checking their narrative, when it is difficult to verify it.
This is generally found around the world. But after all, before the point at which globalization began, the cycles of change in the price of the consumer basket in many developed countries did not completely agree by any means. Only starting in the 1970s did these cycles begin to resonate with each other. There are many examples of temporary variations in the cyclicity of the same type of psychoeconomic changes both in the past and now. But on average a picture gradually emerges of agreement of all fundamental financial and economic decisions, that is, all psychoeconomic cycles.
The degree to which these decisions agree grows during periods of crisis, at the point when the post-postresonators are dominant. This is evident in a chart of the interval from the 20s to the 30s and the interval from the 1990s to the beginning of this century. Here the degree of agreement of change in the main indexes discussed is very high. The CPI only occurs in antiphase. And this is understandable. In a period of strengthening hysteroid personality traits, there is a sharp increase in the decision-making of external reference, that is, decisions begin to agree amongst themselves, automatically, without prodding or external enforcement, but according to the essence of its psychotype. Social motivators remain social motivators. Agreement of opinion for them is vitally important. There is even an excuse for poor decisions – everyone made a mistake… Such logic is a trait, but in the absence of the ability to think objectively and analyze, it is also the salvation of the social motivators.
The resonant alignment of many indicators of economic development in the world has many psychological and social consequences. Thus, it is not by accident that in the crisis period of 1928-1939 and since 2008 this concordance grew sharply. But what does this uniformity of the change in the price of the consumer basket mean, this ratio of the price of material and non-material assets, gold and shares, etc.?
First, this is uniformity of making decisions on these questions by the main agents of economic activity. But these decisions are related to a change in the relationship between the conscious and unconscious. These are also the basis of the change in character traits, although at a slower rate than the change in decision-making. It is not for nothing that they say “Temptations are like tramps – let one in and he returns with his friends.” The decision is the temptation. Frequent, synchronic decisions are the sign of the formation of common character traits, a single system of metaprograms for decision making.
Second, the distribution to the entire world of the conditions of economic development of the center of world economy is the distribution of a unified economic attitude and more. Precisely these conditions necessitate making decisions of a single type. In time this forms or gives birth to intellects of the same type, while it sometimes simply promotes to the forefront people with a certain type of intellect. It is exactly what the elites have, the economically active population of the leading country of the world, that best predicts the behavior of the market in complicated conditions, and corresponds to it. This conclusion sort of flows from the first point. For each psychotype has a corresponding type of intellect. Therefore in some historical periods people with hysteroid traits of intellectual activity succeed at the helm of finance, while at others, it is the relative opposite.
Thirdly, this signifies the beginning of the formation of a unified system of dynamic stereotypes in the agents of economic activity, among the elites around the world, that is, the beginning of the formation of a unified psychotype of the economically active population, the elite of the whole world. In the first place, the psychotype that is mimicked is the one that receives a greater return, and that return is defined in the GDP of the leading country of the world. But we now know that these are the financiers and people obtaining the best returns from financial operations. Usually these are the post-postresonators. In the second place, profit-wise, are the representatives of commerce.
This requires some explanation. If a person makes decisions on the basis of cumulative and factorial causes, then the uniformity of the action of cumulative and factorial causes should lead (under condition of uniformity of the agents of economic activity themselves and external conditions of their activity) to unified decisions. On the other hand, unified decisions are the result of the activity of similar causes. Social and economic conditions of the activities of daily living are increasingly leveling under globalization. The regulations of the WTO are also enabling this. These rules have been accepted by a large percentage of the nations of the world. Members of the WTO are realizing a larger and larger part of GDP through foreign trade. The greatest profit is obtained by enterprises and governments that actively participate in the international division of labor, in foreign trade, and in financial operations. The financial market brings the greatest revenue to those countries that set it up. Financing supplies production and commerce. The acceptance of international trade regulations is nothing other than the acceptance of unified conditions of commercial operations, a single lingua franca, common concepts, and so on. Without analyzing the factors that define success of foreign trade operations, it is impossible to depend on the success of many branches of production in a specific country, regardless of its socioeconomic structure. In that case, then specialists who ensure the success of foreign trade operations and provide financing with occupy an increasingly important niche within the economic elite of the society. And such people become an object of emulation. Largely they are emulated in places where they obtain education and where their children receive education, in the style of thinking, in the theories that they have mastered, in their external attributes, in their culture in the widest sense of the word… At the same time, each social, professional or economic group is a vehicle of specific dynamic stereotypes, of a specific psychotype. This process is objective and is not affected by the process of globalization. The differences between professional groups remain. Essential national differences are also maintained. But that’s just it: currently, the groups of people who make crucial decisions in finance and economics are in the process of forming a unified psychotype. For the time being this psychotype possesses the traits of elitism. Common dynamic stereotypes of economic and other behavior of the world elite are formed. By no means can just any representatives of a specific country join this group. Usually it is only those who obtain a large portion of the profit in finance and emulate the financial elite of the world.
One, two or three generations will be required to form unified dynamic stereotypes in the world’s elite. But this process today is very active.
So throughout the world they begin to wear suits rather than their national dress (although in some places both national and general European traditions are maintained simultaneously), they begin to watch the same films, to like the same writers, etc. And that is how the psychological basis for forming a unified culture is created. Of course, these processes are very complex. The dynamic stereotypes and cultural peculiarities of the poor are different from those of the elite; culture in India is different from that in the US. And these differences are leveled very slowly. While some will remain an extremely long time, let us say, the differences that are caused by the level of people’s income. All of this is true. But here the question is about the agents of economic activity, about successful businessmen, business leaders. This cohort of people is under the influence of both its own people (without them an effective national business cannot be organized), as well as the economic elite of the leaders of world governments (without whom it is difficult to become an effective merchant, or to be included in the international division of labor).
But it has always been this way.